After market close on October 20, SpaceX released its Q3 earnings report—its first quarterly profit since going public, with net income of about ¥700 billion (approximately $4.7 billion).
That figure needs some context to understand why it matters.
SpaceX went public this June at an IPO price of $135, raising about $85.7 billion in the largest IPO in history. Its market cap briefly topped $2 trillion on the first day of trading, but then fell by nearly half over the next two months. The reason was simple: Q2 revenue beat expectations ($7.8 billion, up 92% year over year), but the company still posted a net loss of $541 million and spent $18.4 billion on capital expenditures in a single quarter, most of it on AI infrastructure.
The market’s thinking at the time: the company was burning through cash too quickly, and profitability was nowhere in sight.
Q3 broke that assumption.
The main driver of SpaceX’s first-ever profit was its AI business. In Q2, the AI division generated $2.6 billion in revenue, up 247% year over year. Analysts’ Q3 estimate then jumped straight to $6 billion, as the contract for Anthropic to rent the Colossus data center for $1.25 billion a month began to be fully reflected in the results in July, alongside new contracts with customers like Google. The description “AI business revenue 9x” refers to this growth curve.
The business model is straightforward: buy Nvidia GPUs, build data centers, then rent them to companies like Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. It’s the same logic as Starlink—build capital-intensive infrastructure and recoup the investment through rental income.
But one detail is worth noting: these AI computing contracts have 90-day termination clauses, so customers can choose not to renew at any time. The revenue surge is real, but whether it can continue will depend on future renewals.
One other variable: about 1.3 billion shares will be unlocked after the Q3 earnings release—more than the entire IPO offering. Even with strong earnings, that potential selling pressure shouldn’t be ignored.
What position is SPCX holding now?
$SPCXB
That figure needs some context to understand why it matters.
SpaceX went public this June at an IPO price of $135, raising about $85.7 billion in the largest IPO in history. Its market cap briefly topped $2 trillion on the first day of trading, but then fell by nearly half over the next two months. The reason was simple: Q2 revenue beat expectations ($7.8 billion, up 92% year over year), but the company still posted a net loss of $541 million and spent $18.4 billion on capital expenditures in a single quarter, most of it on AI infrastructure.
The market’s thinking at the time: the company was burning through cash too quickly, and profitability was nowhere in sight.
Q3 broke that assumption.
The main driver of SpaceX’s first-ever profit was its AI business. In Q2, the AI division generated $2.6 billion in revenue, up 247% year over year. Analysts’ Q3 estimate then jumped straight to $6 billion, as the contract for Anthropic to rent the Colossus data center for $1.25 billion a month began to be fully reflected in the results in July, alongside new contracts with customers like Google. The description “AI business revenue 9x” refers to this growth curve.
The business model is straightforward: buy Nvidia GPUs, build data centers, then rent them to companies like Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. It’s the same logic as Starlink—build capital-intensive infrastructure and recoup the investment through rental income.
But one detail is worth noting: these AI computing contracts have 90-day termination clauses, so customers can choose not to renew at any time. The revenue surge is real, but whether it can continue will depend on future renewals.
One other variable: about 1.3 billion shares will be unlocked after the Q3 earnings release—more than the entire IPO offering. Even with strong earnings, that potential selling pressure shouldn’t be ignored.
What position is SPCX holding now?
$SPCXB