#occ发布genius法案首个最终规则
$400 million flows onchain every hour, yet the market cap is only $301.4 billion 🦖
On October 21, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released the first final rule under the GENIUS Act. Treasury Secretary Bessent called it a watershed moment for American finance that day, comparing it to Lincoln’s National Currency Act of 1863 ⚖️

📣 盘面异动群里喊

A report commissioned by Coinbase and published by The Block Research on the same day showed that stablecoin transfer volume reached $891 billion in the third quarter—more than four times its level in early 2023. Of that, 73% took place outside banking hours and on weekends 📈

The key point is what you see when you put these two developments together.
The rules give stablecoins a federal framework, and transfer volumes show they’re already being used as infrastructure. But DeFiLlama’s figures are striking: the total stablecoin market cap is $301.4 billion, down 0.6% from a year ago. Standard Chartered originally forecast a $2 trillion market by 2028; it has now pushed that timeline out to 2030.

Put simply: money passes through stablecoins; it doesn’t stay in them.
Traffic on a road has quadrupled, but the number of cars parked there hasn’t increased. That tells us stablecoins currently function as settlement rails, not as stores of value. Their role has changed; the ceiling will only rise when their use changes 🚛

The evidence on the demand side is even clearer.
Seven of America’s ten largest banks have already tested stablecoins or tokenized deposits for settlement. And 30% of mid-sized cross-border businesses are trying them out, compared with just 10% in 2024. Institutions aren’t getting involved to speculate—they’re doing it to save time and cut fees.

My view: the rules taking effect won’t make stablecoin market caps soar overnight.
They address who can issue stablecoins, how issuance is regulated, and who’s responsible when something goes wrong. What will really determine when supply takes off are two other things: whether banks are willing to move deposits onchain, and whether businesses are willing to shift cross-border settlement away from legacy systems. The first depends on interest margins; the second, on compliance costs. The GENIUS Act is expected to take effect on January 18, 2027. That will be the first real test.

Which do you think stablecoins will disrupt first: cross-border remittances or bank deposits? Let’s talk in the comments.

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