$AGT From 2:10 to 2:45 this afternoon, the price plunged from 0.0622 to 0.0408—a 34% drop in 35 minutes. Over the same period, Binance futures open interest, measured in tokens, fell from a peak of 454.6 million to just 434.5 million, a decline of 4.4%. It has since recovered to 443 million. The price was cut nearly in half, but positions barely budged. That suggests this leg down wasn’t driven by long liquidations; most longs are still in the market.
What’s even more striking is who’s buying the dip. The long-to-short account ratio rose from 41.9% at 2:05 to 46.2% at 2:45, meaning smaller accounts are catching the falling knife. The proportion of large accounts’ positions that are long also rose, from 63.5% to 64.2%. No one is admitting defeat. Funding rates have settled at the 0.005% floor for five consecutive intervals since 8 p.m. last night, down from 0.04% before. The premium for chasing longs has long since disappeared, but the longs still haven’t left.
Looking at the bigger picture, since the October 18 morning high of 0.1151, the price has retraced 63%, while open interest is only 17% below its then-level of 533 million tokens. A downtrend is usually truly over only after a large number of longs are forced to close and open interest drops sharply. That hasn’t happened yet. These positions were mostly opened during the days when the price was above 0.06. Every rebound will tempt some holders to exit at breakeven, making those positions overhead selling pressure.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is 23.3, indicating short-term oversold conditions, so a rebound could happen at any time. But the price has broken below the 4-hour Bollinger lower band at 0.0481, which will act as resistance if the price rebounds to it. Below that, the 4-hour Keltner lower band at 0.0393 is close to the daily EMA26 at 0.0379. This is the most credible support zone in this decline.
To set the record straight: yesterday at 10:30 a.m., I wrote that this move in AGT wasn’t over yet, and that I’d be wrong if the 4-hour candle closed below 0.0729. The 4-hour candle closed at 0.0676 that evening, and the price has since fallen all the way to its current level—53% below when I posted. I was wrong this time.
I’m bearish for now. I expect the 0.0379–0.0393 zone to be tested this week, and I don’t think the price will reclaim 0.0481. Only when open interest falls below 400 million tokens and the proportion of long accounts drops below 40% will I consider the longs properly flushed out. That’s when I’ll start looking for a bottom. I don’t hold any AGT.
#AGT #FuturesOpenInterest
What’s even more striking is who’s buying the dip. The long-to-short account ratio rose from 41.9% at 2:05 to 46.2% at 2:45, meaning smaller accounts are catching the falling knife. The proportion of large accounts’ positions that are long also rose, from 63.5% to 64.2%. No one is admitting defeat. Funding rates have settled at the 0.005% floor for five consecutive intervals since 8 p.m. last night, down from 0.04% before. The premium for chasing longs has long since disappeared, but the longs still haven’t left.
Looking at the bigger picture, since the October 18 morning high of 0.1151, the price has retraced 63%, while open interest is only 17% below its then-level of 533 million tokens. A downtrend is usually truly over only after a large number of longs are forced to close and open interest drops sharply. That hasn’t happened yet. These positions were mostly opened during the days when the price was above 0.06. Every rebound will tempt some holders to exit at breakeven, making those positions overhead selling pressure.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is 23.3, indicating short-term oversold conditions, so a rebound could happen at any time. But the price has broken below the 4-hour Bollinger lower band at 0.0481, which will act as resistance if the price rebounds to it. Below that, the 4-hour Keltner lower band at 0.0393 is close to the daily EMA26 at 0.0379. This is the most credible support zone in this decline.
To set the record straight: yesterday at 10:30 a.m., I wrote that this move in AGT wasn’t over yet, and that I’d be wrong if the 4-hour candle closed below 0.0729. The 4-hour candle closed at 0.0676 that evening, and the price has since fallen all the way to its current level—53% below when I posted. I was wrong this time.
I’m bearish for now. I expect the 0.0379–0.0393 zone to be tested this week, and I don’t think the price will reclaim 0.0481. Only when open interest falls below 400 million tokens and the proportion of long accounts drops below 40% will I consider the longs properly flushed out. That’s when I’ll start looking for a bottom. I don’t hold any AGT.
#AGT #FuturesOpenInterest