Interest rates are already at a 31-year high—and may climb even higher. Former BOJ executive says next hike is set for December 🦖
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On October 21, Eiji Maeda, a former executive director of the Bank of Japan, said the next rate hike is expected in December, followed by another in March or April. The pace of rate hikes has accelerated to roughly once every three months, which he considers appropriate.
The BOJ just raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September, passing the decision by a 7–2 vote. That’s the highest level since April 1995, and the three-month gap since the previous hike is the shortest since 1990.
If the BOJ raises rates again in December, they will reach 1.50%—25 basis points above the current level. And the current rate of 1.25% is already at a 31-year high.
What’s even more worth watching is the timing. The Fed raised its rate to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and all 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect another hike in December. In other words, December could be a month when both the Fed and the BOJ tighten policy at the same time.
For the past two decades, Japan has been one of the cheapest places in the world to borrow money. The carry trade works by borrowing yen, converting them into dollars, and using them to buy US stocks, Bitcoin—anything that might go up. This strategy works only because Japanese interest rates are low enough and the yen is cheap enough.
The real risk isn’t those 25 basis points in December. It’s that the once-every-three-months pace becomes established. Once the market believes Japan will keep raising rates, carry trades need to be recalculated. As the interest-rate gap narrows, borrowing yen to buy risk assets becomes less attractive. And the biggest danger for these positions isn’t gradual losses—it’s everyone rushing for the exit at once ⚠️
In several previous waves of yen carry-trade unwinds, Bitcoin has suffered sharp pullbacks in a very short time. Leveraged positions have no patience: they don’t wait for fundamentals; they just rush for the exit 💥
Bitcoin is now around $83,000, and smaller coins are still rising today. ZEC is up 9.59% in a day. The market doesn’t look worried at all 📉
But that’s all the more reason to stay alert. Real turning points often happen when everyone thinks everything is fine.
Do you think December will be a month of rate hikes by both central banks? Join the discussion in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we bring you the latest crypto market trends—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
📣 盘面异动群里喊
On October 21, Eiji Maeda, a former executive director of the Bank of Japan, said the next rate hike is expected in December, followed by another in March or April. The pace of rate hikes has accelerated to roughly once every three months, which he considers appropriate.
The BOJ just raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September, passing the decision by a 7–2 vote. That’s the highest level since April 1995, and the three-month gap since the previous hike is the shortest since 1990.
If the BOJ raises rates again in December, they will reach 1.50%—25 basis points above the current level. And the current rate of 1.25% is already at a 31-year high.
What’s even more worth watching is the timing. The Fed raised its rate to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and all 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect another hike in December. In other words, December could be a month when both the Fed and the BOJ tighten policy at the same time.
For the past two decades, Japan has been one of the cheapest places in the world to borrow money. The carry trade works by borrowing yen, converting them into dollars, and using them to buy US stocks, Bitcoin—anything that might go up. This strategy works only because Japanese interest rates are low enough and the yen is cheap enough.
The real risk isn’t those 25 basis points in December. It’s that the once-every-three-months pace becomes established. Once the market believes Japan will keep raising rates, carry trades need to be recalculated. As the interest-rate gap narrows, borrowing yen to buy risk assets becomes less attractive. And the biggest danger for these positions isn’t gradual losses—it’s everyone rushing for the exit at once ⚠️
In several previous waves of yen carry-trade unwinds, Bitcoin has suffered sharp pullbacks in a very short time. Leveraged positions have no patience: they don’t wait for fundamentals; they just rush for the exit 💥
Bitcoin is now around $83,000, and smaller coins are still rising today. ZEC is up 9.59% in a day. The market doesn’t look worried at all 📉
But that’s all the more reason to stay alert. Real turning points often happen when everyone thinks everything is fine.
Do you think December will be a month of rate hikes by both central banks? Join the discussion in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we bring you the latest crypto market trends—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀