Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies have once again reached a critical breakout point. Looking back at our forecasts from last Saturday and Monday, the overall market action has unfolded in line with our analysis:
Review of our forecast: Last Saturday, we clearly said the market was poised for a major rebound, but that this would not change the broader picture of the Nasdaq and Bitcoin being in a weak corrective/consolidation phase. This week's scenario: On Monday, we laid out our scenario for the week: “a rebound first, followed by a sharp plunge.” Then, as oil prices fell and signs of easing geopolitical tensions emerged, U.S. stock index futures and Bitcoin surged strongly. Recent price action confirms our view: Although Tuesday's rebound was somewhat choppy, our previously emphasized target of $84,000 remained unchanged. The daily chart has fully confirmed our forecast. At present, the daily ADX indicator is around 18.9, suggesting that the market remains range-bound and has yet to establish a major one-way trend.
On the lower-timeframe structure, the lows are continuing to rise. The pullback has not broken below the prior structural low, suggesting strong breakout potential at the upper boundary. As long as the current support holds, a sweep of the liquidity around $84,400 is highly likely.
(Note: Unless a black swan event occurs, such as a sudden, sharp deterioration in geopolitical conditions, the established logic of a rebound and a sweep of liquidity above remains valid.)
Reshaping the institutional mindset: Rejecting “market-maker conspiracy theories” and understanding the combined force of the market Many retail investors are used to thinking of a “market maker” as a mysterious entity that can draw charts however it pleases. Some even believe market makers deliberately leave liquidity at higher levels untouched to lure buyers in before driving prices down. This “market-maker conspiracy theory” is fundamentally flawed in its logic.
When analyzing real market dynamics, we need to clarify two points:
The range determines the nature of the market dynamics Narrow trading range: When macro conditions are calm and there are no major events, the dominant bulls and bears can easily act in concert, sweeping up retail liquidity within a narrow range. Wide trading ranges and complex macro conditions: When variables such as macroeconomic and political developments, economic policy, and movements in U.S. tech stocks are densely intertwined, even large institutions cannot manipulate the market on their own. Major institutions must also follow the trend and weigh the costs and benefits of moving prices.
Retail investors are not the only ones on the other side of the market Bitcoin is one of the world's leading liquid assets, and its market participants include major bullish and bearish players, spot ETF institutions, large family offices, and even governments.
As top investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch have said, don't try to predict or manipulate the market with certainty. When liquidity above becomes attractive to bulls, they may push prices higher; but if bearish resistance becomes too strong or macro conditions turn unfavorable, major players may also cancel their orders or cut their losses. The market's ultimate direction reflects the combined force of many players at a given moment—not a one-person show.
Order-book and macro dynamics: Key strategies for responding after a breakout of a critical level Macro conditions and Treasury yields The 10-year Treasury yield is an important external indicator affecting risk assets. As Treasury yields gradually retreat from their highs and fear subsides, market conditions will become more favorable for major players to create room for a rebound.
Order-book analysis Based on order-book orders and changes in open interest:
Sell orders from short sellers are relatively concentrated at higher levels, indicating that bearish sentiment remains in the market in the short term. The previous sharp rally was accompanied by a rapid decline in open interest, indicating that a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated. Open interest then stabilized and orders increased, reflecting the return of short sellers to the market. Trading strategy Do not place short orders blindly or prematurely: When market consensus is very strong, if retail traders become overly concentrated in short positions, major players can easily drive a short squeeze by going with the trend. Wait for confirmation before acting: Consider waiting for the price to break through the $84,000–$84,400 range, then look for clear right-side topping signals such as a break below a level followed by a reclaim, an evening star, or an engulfing pattern before choosing an entry for a short position. Set stop losses strictly: If the price does not reclaim the level after breaking through, but instead surges past the prior structural high, the bearish thesis is invalidated and the market will move toward liquidity at parallel highs on a higher timeframe. Altcoin watch: Analysis of ZEC (Zcash) volatility Yesterday, ZEC surged by around 10%, prompting discussion about a comeback for privacy coins:
Technical analysis: After a prolonged decline, ZEC broke above a minor descending-structure high. However, a large amount of short-side liquidity is clustered near $1,400, making this a key make-or-break level for determining whether it can return to a bullish trend. Potential paths: If the price reaches the $1,400 area and quickly meets resistance before falling back, the overall strategy remains to look for short opportunities at higher levels. Conversely, if it can decisively reclaim and hold above $1,400, it may go on to challenge the previous high of $1,700. Conclusion and what to watch From macro conditions and technical price action to options order books and institutional positioning, we remain committed to helping you cut through the market noise with the most rigorous analysis.