Long-term cycle analysis $BTC :
Don’t rush to declare a bull market comeback in the long run: after falling from 126,000, a bottom at 60,000 would take 300 days to recover. If it drops all the way to 40,000–45,000, recovery would take 440 days, and the major bottom could be delayed until after Q2 2027.
There’s hope in the medium term: long-term holders distributed heavily from February to October, and on October 7–8, another 32,000 BTC was moved to exchanges. But the 60-day net accumulation of whales holding 1,000–10,000 BTC has shifted from -62,600 to +5,230. Major players have gone from selling to buying, suggesting distribution is probably nearing its end and the market is transitioning toward forming a bottom.
In the short term, watch 80,000: repeated tests have held, with three pullbacks to 81,000. Losses are narrowing and excess supply has been flushed out. There’s selling pressure at 83,000, while 88,000 is the medium-term cost basis; first, the market needs to rebound and build momentum to absorb that pressure. As long as 80,000 holds, the structure remains intact.
Don’t use a short-term rebound to dismiss long-term caution, and don’t use a bearish long-term outlook to dismiss medium-term improvement.
Don’t rush to declare a bull market comeback in the long run: after falling from 126,000, a bottom at 60,000 would take 300 days to recover. If it drops all the way to 40,000–45,000, recovery would take 440 days, and the major bottom could be delayed until after Q2 2027.
There’s hope in the medium term: long-term holders distributed heavily from February to October, and on October 7–8, another 32,000 BTC was moved to exchanges. But the 60-day net accumulation of whales holding 1,000–10,000 BTC has shifted from -62,600 to +5,230. Major players have gone from selling to buying, suggesting distribution is probably nearing its end and the market is transitioning toward forming a bottom.
In the short term, watch 80,000: repeated tests have held, with three pullbacks to 81,000. Losses are narrowing and excess supply has been flushed out. There’s selling pressure at 83,000, while 88,000 is the medium-term cost basis; first, the market needs to rebound and build momentum to absorb that pressure. As long as 80,000 holds, the structure remains intact.
Don’t use a short-term rebound to dismiss long-term caution, and don’t use a bearish long-term outlook to dismiss medium-term improvement.
