Cleveland-Cliffs $CLF.US reported Q3 consolidated net income of $165 million, versus a loss of $234 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $612 million, $37 million above its guidance of $575 million issued three months ago.

The turnaround was driven mainly by pricing. Volume was 4.15 million net tons, up 3.0% year over year, while the average price was $1,177 per net ton, up 14.1%. Segment gross profit swung from a loss of $56 million to a profit of $454 million.

But EBITDA isn’t cash. Operating cash flow was $224 million; after $152 million in capital expenditures, free cash flow was just $72 million, or 12% of EBITDA. Cash on hand was $77 million. Total liquidity of $3.2 billion includes undrawn credit facilities. Q3 net income attributable to shareholders was $152 million, but the company still posted a cumulative loss of $230 million for the first three quarters. One quarter couldn’t fill the hole from the first two, and operating cash flow totaled just $129 million over nine months.

Q4 guidance is $715 million, and the company says it can exceed $4 billion in 2027. Based on guidance, that puts full-year EBITDA at about $1.65 billion—a 2.4-fold leap—driven by signed contracts and forecasts for index prices. There are only two variables: whether steel prices hold up, and whether free cash flow can turn that $4 billion into debt reduction.

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