$527 million in inflows and still no lift—the market tonight: buyers are here, but price isn’t buying it
Let’s start with today’s most eye-catching numbers: On Monday U.S. time, spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $527 million, their largest single-day total in nearly a month. BlackRock alone took in about $665 million, according to CoinDesk and SoSoValue. But what about $BTC ’s price? It was around $81,690 before publication, down about 0.98% over 24 hours and still languishing in the lower half of its range.
Here’s the day in a nutshell: BTC was dumped to $81,200 in the morning but found buyers; the 4-hour candle closed with a long lower wick. At midday, I said, “There are buyers at the bottom, but nobody’s chasing at the top.” The afternoon confirmed the second half: the 12:00 4-hour candle reached a high of just $82,272, then slipped back to close at $81,567; the 16:00 candle closed at $81,504. Buyers did hold the line, but couldn’t spark a rebound. $ETH was weaker, at around $2,398, down about 1.05% over 24 hours. Its ETF has also seen outflows for four straight days, including about $103 million on Monday. The money is only backing BTC, not the market as a whole.
My take: Inflows this large and still no lift suggests overhead selling pressure and external headwinds are offsetting them. U.S. equity futures are weak tonight; General Motors and General Electric shares fell sharply after their earnings reports, and oil prices surged to around $111, according to media reports. Netflix reports after the close, and QCP analysts have already warned that deleveraging in U.S. stocks could put the $80,000 support level to the test (analyst opinion, not fact). Funding rates are quite flat, though—BTC is around +0.002%, with no crowded positioning—so this isn’t a capitulation; it’s a grind.
The invalidation levels are unchanged, based on 4-hour closes only: A close above $82,544 invalidates my bearish take, and we can talk about a recovery. A break below $81,200 puts $80,684/$80,800 in view, followed by the round-number level of $80,000. Tonight is an event window: don’t chase highs or use max leverage. This view does not guarantee returns.
Pick one: During tonight’s U.S. session, will $BTC reclaim $82,544 first, or test $81,200 first?
#BTC #比特币 #ETF #USeearnings
Let’s start with today’s most eye-catching numbers: On Monday U.S. time, spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $527 million, their largest single-day total in nearly a month. BlackRock alone took in about $665 million, according to CoinDesk and SoSoValue. But what about $BTC ’s price? It was around $81,690 before publication, down about 0.98% over 24 hours and still languishing in the lower half of its range.
Here’s the day in a nutshell: BTC was dumped to $81,200 in the morning but found buyers; the 4-hour candle closed with a long lower wick. At midday, I said, “There are buyers at the bottom, but nobody’s chasing at the top.” The afternoon confirmed the second half: the 12:00 4-hour candle reached a high of just $82,272, then slipped back to close at $81,567; the 16:00 candle closed at $81,504. Buyers did hold the line, but couldn’t spark a rebound. $ETH was weaker, at around $2,398, down about 1.05% over 24 hours. Its ETF has also seen outflows for four straight days, including about $103 million on Monday. The money is only backing BTC, not the market as a whole.
My take: Inflows this large and still no lift suggests overhead selling pressure and external headwinds are offsetting them. U.S. equity futures are weak tonight; General Motors and General Electric shares fell sharply after their earnings reports, and oil prices surged to around $111, according to media reports. Netflix reports after the close, and QCP analysts have already warned that deleveraging in U.S. stocks could put the $80,000 support level to the test (analyst opinion, not fact). Funding rates are quite flat, though—BTC is around +0.002%, with no crowded positioning—so this isn’t a capitulation; it’s a grind.
The invalidation levels are unchanged, based on 4-hour closes only: A close above $82,544 invalidates my bearish take, and we can talk about a recovery. A break below $81,200 puts $80,684/$80,800 in view, followed by the round-number level of $80,000. Tonight is an event window: don’t chase highs or use max leverage. This view does not guarantee returns.
Pick one: During tonight’s U.S. session, will $BTC reclaim $82,544 first, or test $81,200 first?
#BTC #比特币 #ETF #USeearnings