$JCT At 5:45 pm I wrote, “0.00386 can’t break through these past two days.” Fifty minutes later, it was above that level. It’s now at 0.00432, up another 26% from when I posted. The intraday high was 0.00443, the highest price since August 7.
That call was wrong, and I’ve figured out why. At the time, I treated two things as signals of a top: the number of long accounts was falling, and the funding rate had turned positive, meaning longs were paying. Over these three hours, neither trend stopped. The share of long accounts fell from 47.6% to 39.9%, while open interest rose from 5.21 billion tokens to 6.15 billion, up 18%. The funding rate settled at +0.065% at 8 pm, and the next estimate is +0.071%—higher even than at 4 pm.
None of the signals changed, yet the price went the other way. That means I read them backwards. The rising funding rate shows that futures buyers would rather pay an extra 0.07% every four hours than give up their positions. That’s demand, not a burden. During this stretch, trading ranged from 0.00325 to 0.00443. The current price is near the top of that range, and most of the new shorts are underwater. Every step higher forces another batch of shorts to pay to buy back their positions.
Now look at the large traders. By position size, their long share is 53.6%, a little below the 57.6% at 5 pm, but still above half. Shorts make up 60% of accounts, but longs still dominate by capital. The side with more people lost to the side with more money. I left that out of my assessment this afternoon.
The market really is overheated: the price is nearly 20% above the four-hour Bollinger upper band at 0.00362, while the one-hour EMA12 is still at 0.00318. But overheating only means there may be volatility; it doesn’t mean a reversal is coming. At 8:05 pm, the price plunged to 0.00383, then was bought back above 0.0040 within ten minutes. The low at 7:50 pm was 0.00392. The one-hour ATR is around 0.00024, so a normal pullback would be about 5%.
This time, I’m siding with the short squeeze. The 0.0038–0.0039 range should become the new floor—the level I previously said price couldn’t get past. If it holds, the next target above is 0.0050, the August 6 level. Only if the hourly candle closes below 0.00383 will the shorts have regained control. I’m still flat on JCT. It was my assessment that was wrong; I won’t chase this move. These are my personal views.
#JCT #FuturesReview
That call was wrong, and I’ve figured out why. At the time, I treated two things as signals of a top: the number of long accounts was falling, and the funding rate had turned positive, meaning longs were paying. Over these three hours, neither trend stopped. The share of long accounts fell from 47.6% to 39.9%, while open interest rose from 5.21 billion tokens to 6.15 billion, up 18%. The funding rate settled at +0.065% at 8 pm, and the next estimate is +0.071%—higher even than at 4 pm.
None of the signals changed, yet the price went the other way. That means I read them backwards. The rising funding rate shows that futures buyers would rather pay an extra 0.07% every four hours than give up their positions. That’s demand, not a burden. During this stretch, trading ranged from 0.00325 to 0.00443. The current price is near the top of that range, and most of the new shorts are underwater. Every step higher forces another batch of shorts to pay to buy back their positions.
Now look at the large traders. By position size, their long share is 53.6%, a little below the 57.6% at 5 pm, but still above half. Shorts make up 60% of accounts, but longs still dominate by capital. The side with more people lost to the side with more money. I left that out of my assessment this afternoon.
The market really is overheated: the price is nearly 20% above the four-hour Bollinger upper band at 0.00362, while the one-hour EMA12 is still at 0.00318. But overheating only means there may be volatility; it doesn’t mean a reversal is coming. At 8:05 pm, the price plunged to 0.00383, then was bought back above 0.0040 within ten minutes. The low at 7:50 pm was 0.00392. The one-hour ATR is around 0.00024, so a normal pullback would be about 5%.
This time, I’m siding with the short squeeze. The 0.0038–0.0039 range should become the new floor—the level I previously said price couldn’t get past. If it holds, the next target above is 0.0050, the August 6 level. Only if the hourly candle closes below 0.00383 will the shorts have regained control. I’m still flat on JCT. It was my assessment that was wrong; I won’t chase this move. These are my personal views.
#JCT #FuturesReview