US (Talus) has fallen from its July peak of 0.0623 to 0.0057 now, losing over 90%. It dropped 79% in October alone. If it gets a second wind, I think 0.004227 and 0.003935 are good levels for adding to a position or buying. Those stuck in long positions can add at these two levels to lower their average cost.
▍Why these two price levels
· 0.004227: March's closing price. It fell to a low of 0.004221 in May, almost exactly the same level, then rose nearly 15x through May, June, and July. The price with the most trading activity in February was also around 0.0042.
· 0.003935: April's low. The price found support there in April, and that marked the start of the big rally that followed, climbing more than 15x to its July peak.
At 0.0057 now, it would need to fall another 26% to reach the first price, and another 31% to reach the second.
▍What happened to coins that surged before when they fell to levels like this?
I looked through 37 coins on Binance Futures that had “more than doubled in a month,” including coins that have since been delisted. US rose 396% in July. Comparing them based on the same percentage drop:
· 18 of them, like US, had already fallen by 90%. Of those, 15 later fell further to levels like these two prices—and it happened quickly, usually within a few days to just over a week.
· Within three months of reaching those levels, they generally rebounded by more than 100%; 9 of the 15 rebounded by over 50%.
· Along the way, they generally fell about another 20%. Three months later, their closing prices were typically still 20% to 30% above these two prices.
▍How much can adding to your position lower your cost basis?
For example, say you bought 1,000U worth at 0.0269 (the October open):
· If you don't add to your position, the price would need to rise 536% from 0.004227 for you to break even.
· If you add another 1,000U at 0.004227, your cost basis drops to 0.0073, and the price would need to rise 73% from there for you to break even.
· If you add another 1,000U at 0.003935, your cost basis drops to 0.0057, and the price would need to rise 44% from there for you to break even.
▍Three things to keep in mind
· Add in batches; don't go all in at once. The price could still plunge below these two levels. Below them is March's all-time low of 0.002664.
· Only a third of US's total supply is currently circulating; the remaining two-thirds haven't been released yet and will be unlocked over time.
· If you're long on futures, check your liquidation price first. With high leverage, you could get liquidated before the price even reaches these two levels.
▍How big is US right now?
· Total supply: 10 billion; currently circulating: 3.35 billion
· Current circulating market cap: about $19 million
· At these two price levels, the circulating market cap would be about $14 million and $13 million, respectively
That's just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Do you think US has a second wind in it? Let's discuss in the comments.