$龙虾 It has fallen 93% from its September high of 0.3143 to 0.0211 now. If it has another run in it, I think 0.01122 and 0.00724 are good levels to add to your position or buy in. If you’re stuck in losing long positions, you can add at these two levels to bring your average cost down.
▍Why these two levels
· 0.01122: July’s low. When the price fell to this level in July, buyers stepped in. It rose 46% that month, then climbed another 251% in August. The previous major rally started right here.
· 0.00724: April’s closing price. In April and May, Lobster traded sideways around this level for a long time, with the most buying and selling happening in this range. Put simply, this is where people bought the most before it took off.
At 0.0211 now, it would need to drop another 47% to reach the first price, and another 66% to reach the second.
▍What happened to coins that surged before after they fell this far?
I looked at 37 coins on Binance Futures that had more than doubled in a month, including coins that have since been delisted. Lobster rose 251% in August. Comparing drops of the same magnitude:
· Of the 37 coins, 27 fell to around the first price—roughly three out of four. Within three months of reaching that level, they typically rebounded by about 60%, and nearly 60% rebounded by more than 50%.
· Of the 37 coins, 20 fell to around the second price—a little over half. Within three months of reaching that level, they typically rebounded by about 50%, and half rebounded by more than 50%.
▍How much can adding to your position lower your average cost?
For example, say you bought $1,000 worth at 0.0359:
· If you add another $1,000 at 0.01122, your average cost drops from 0.0359 to 0.0171. It would then need to rise 52% for you to break even, instead of 220%.
· If you add another $1,000 at 0.00724, your average cost drops to 0.0118. It would need to rise 62% from 0.00724 for you to break even.
▍Two things to keep in mind
· Add in stages; don’t go all in at once. Even if it reaches either of these prices, it could keep falling. In the past, coins that reached these levels typically fell by about half again over the following three months.
· If you’re long on futures, check your liquidation price first. With high leverage, you could get liquidated before the price even reaches either of these levels.
▍How big is Lobster now?
· 1 billion tokens in total, all in circulation
· Current market cap: about $21 million
· At the first price, the market cap would be about $11 million; at the second, about $7 million
That’s just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Do you think Lobster could have a second wind? Let’s talk in the comments.