After eight consecutive days of declines in the memory sector, $SNDK surged more than 6% today, pushing the price straight up to around 1381 and leaving it just a step away from the psychological 1400 threshold. The chart clearly shows money flowing back in, but there’s a catch: the overnight session has already priced in some of the positive expectations, and the real stress test will come when the U.S. market opens.
The setup above 1400 isn’t favorable. A dense overhang of trapped holders has built up between 1400 and 1442 after the prolonged slide. The selling pressure from both profit-taking and investors looking to break even after a rally shouldn’t be underestimated. If institutional money doesn’t step in decisively after the U.S. market opens, this rebound could well stall here, with the dense trading zone between 1298 and 1313 becoming the first target on a pullback.
As for related signals, SOXL is right at a retest of support at 95.65 on the four-hour chart. Whether that level holds will directly determine short-term sentiment across the chip sector. If it holds, a shallow pullback in $SNDK to around 1340 could find support and settle into consolidation. If it breaks below, the rebound structure will be damaged and the odds of a deeper pullback will rise sharply.
Macroeconomic headwinds have also yet to ease. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are still hovering at elevated levels, inflation expectations haven’t shown a clear sign of retreat, and the memory industry lacks near-term earnings catalysts that could exceed expectations. For the market to pull back shallowly and then resume its climb, the Nasdaq would need to remain broadly strong, with macro conditions providing support as well. Those conditions won’t be easy to bring together right now.
Fund flows during the first half hour after tonight’s open will be the key window to watch. If big money really steps in and pushes prices higher, going with the trend will have a better chance of success. On the other hand, if short-term traders who chased the rally during the day panic and rush for the exits, a cascading sell-off is entirely possible. At this point, patience is worth more than trying to call the direction.
The setup above 1400 isn’t favorable. A dense overhang of trapped holders has built up between 1400 and 1442 after the prolonged slide. The selling pressure from both profit-taking and investors looking to break even after a rally shouldn’t be underestimated. If institutional money doesn’t step in decisively after the U.S. market opens, this rebound could well stall here, with the dense trading zone between 1298 and 1313 becoming the first target on a pullback.
As for related signals, SOXL is right at a retest of support at 95.65 on the four-hour chart. Whether that level holds will directly determine short-term sentiment across the chip sector. If it holds, a shallow pullback in $SNDK to around 1340 could find support and settle into consolidation. If it breaks below, the rebound structure will be damaged and the odds of a deeper pullback will rise sharply.
Macroeconomic headwinds have also yet to ease. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are still hovering at elevated levels, inflation expectations haven’t shown a clear sign of retreat, and the memory industry lacks near-term earnings catalysts that could exceed expectations. For the market to pull back shallowly and then resume its climb, the Nasdaq would need to remain broadly strong, with macro conditions providing support as well. Those conditions won’t be easy to bring together right now.
Fund flows during the first half hour after tonight’s open will be the key window to watch. If big money really steps in and pushes prices higher, going with the trend will have a better chance of success. On the other hand, if short-term traders who chased the rally during the day panic and rush for the exits, a cascading sell-off is entirely possible. At this point, patience is worth more than trying to call the direction.