$IREN futures touched 28.83 today, just $0.10 short of the “I’ll only consider it if the daily candle closes back above 28.93” level I wrote down on October 15. U.S. spot rose from yesterday’s close of 26.99 to around 28.43, while Binance futures were up 9.5% over 24 hours, with an intraday low of 25.65. It’s only a dime short, but some people are already calling it a breakout signal.
I went back and reread my October 15 post. Back then, it had fallen from 34.80 to 26.90 in two trading days, a 22.7% drop. Every oversold indicator was flashing, but I said that oversold was oversold—and it wouldn’t make my watchlist until the daily candle closed above 28.93. Today’s high was 28.83, almost there, but I’m still not changing my mind.
The reason is the positioning structure, not one bullish candle. At 8 a.m. today, the funding rate briefly hit +0.41%—longs were paying nearly half a percentage point over four hours, the heaviest long-side tax in recent days. The whale long-position ratio has fallen from 87.2% at 7 a.m. to around 83% now, while retail accounts’ long ratio is still stuck near 70%. As price rebounded from 25.65, futures open interest edged down from around 297,000 contracts in the morning to 291,000 now—there’s been virtually no increase in positions. Who’s pushing the price up? Shorts forced to close by the funding rate. New longs haven’t meaningfully added to their positions; whales are actually cutting positions and exiting, so there are fewer people to carry the move forward.
The indicators fit this picture too: the 4-hour KDJ J-line is already at 110, meaning the short-term move is overstretched. The daily RSI(14) is only 30.2, and the daily EMA12 is still at 31.68. Price remains in a rebound zone within a medium-term downtrend, about $3 below that moving average. The 15-minute candle at the U.S. market open at 21:30 traded about 2.76 million U, with a low of 27.93. It was the day’s largest-volume candle—a typical opening turnover, not a one-way trend move higher. Given this volume-and-price pattern, I’d rather read it as position turnover after a short squeeze than as the start of a new trend.
So I’m treating this move to 28.83 as resistance for now, not a breakout. The conditions are clear: IREN doesn’t go on my watchlist until the daily candle closes above 28.93; if the hourly candle closes back below the opening low of 27.93, then this rebound from 25.65 will have run its course.
#IREN #美股开盘 #MiningStocks
Personal opinion
I went back and reread my October 15 post. Back then, it had fallen from 34.80 to 26.90 in two trading days, a 22.7% drop. Every oversold indicator was flashing, but I said that oversold was oversold—and it wouldn’t make my watchlist until the daily candle closed above 28.93. Today’s high was 28.83, almost there, but I’m still not changing my mind.
The reason is the positioning structure, not one bullish candle. At 8 a.m. today, the funding rate briefly hit +0.41%—longs were paying nearly half a percentage point over four hours, the heaviest long-side tax in recent days. The whale long-position ratio has fallen from 87.2% at 7 a.m. to around 83% now, while retail accounts’ long ratio is still stuck near 70%. As price rebounded from 25.65, futures open interest edged down from around 297,000 contracts in the morning to 291,000 now—there’s been virtually no increase in positions. Who’s pushing the price up? Shorts forced to close by the funding rate. New longs haven’t meaningfully added to their positions; whales are actually cutting positions and exiting, so there are fewer people to carry the move forward.
The indicators fit this picture too: the 4-hour KDJ J-line is already at 110, meaning the short-term move is overstretched. The daily RSI(14) is only 30.2, and the daily EMA12 is still at 31.68. Price remains in a rebound zone within a medium-term downtrend, about $3 below that moving average. The 15-minute candle at the U.S. market open at 21:30 traded about 2.76 million U, with a low of 27.93. It was the day’s largest-volume candle—a typical opening turnover, not a one-way trend move higher. Given this volume-and-price pattern, I’d rather read it as position turnover after a short squeeze than as the start of a new trend.
So I’m treating this move to 28.83 as resistance for now, not a breakout. The conditions are clear: IREN doesn’t go on my watchlist until the daily candle closes above 28.93; if the hourly candle closes back below the opening low of 27.93, then this rebound from 25.65 will have run its course.
#IREN #美股开盘 #MiningStocks
Personal opinion