$OSMO is up 36% today on the spot market, but I’m not watching the wick at 0.0649—I’m watching 0.0565. Over the past week, there were two rallies, and the price only managed to touch 0.0565 at its peak; not a single hourly candle closed above it. Since 5 p.m. today, four candles in a row have closed above it.
Let’s look back at how the last two moves played out. On October 12 at 6 p.m., the price rallied from 0.0363, touched 0.0565 the next morning, then gave it all back. By October 14 at 10 p.m., it had fallen to 0.0375, almost back where it started. Then, at 5 a.m. on October 15, it rallied from 0.0391, surged to 0.0540 within a couple of hours, and was back at 0.0395 by the afternoon of the 17th. Both times, the price retraced to its starting point in about two days, leaving those who chased the rally holding the bag for one another.
This time, the setup is a little different. The lows before each push higher have been rising: 0.0375, 0.0395, 0.0411, and the overnight low today was only 0.0423. The 6 p.m. hourly candle saw $1.5 million in volume, more than the $1.03 million during the wildest hour on the 13th. At 7 p.m., the price pulled back to 0.0551. It was bought back up after dipping less than 3% below 0.0565. It’s now at 0.0608, and today’s high is the highest since May 27. My take is that the last two times the price got above 0.05, the spot buyers who chased in on the 13th and 15th rushed to break even. This time, the price has moved past their cost basis, so there’s a lot less selling pressure overhead.
The upper band of the daily Keltner Channel is at 0.0562, almost exactly in line with 0.0565. The daily MACD histogram has grown from 0.00054 to 0.0015. The 1-hour RSI is already at 84.1, so the short-term move is overheated, and a pullback could come at any time. OSMO only has spot trading on Binance, not futures, so there are no shorts being forced to close. This move has been driven by spot buying, and when it pulls back, there won’t be a cascade of liquidations to intensify the sell-off.
While I’m at it, let’s check this morning’s call: at 10:38, I said $AMP would revisit 0.000869. It surged straight to 0.000968 at 2 p.m. I got that one right.
My view is that 0.0565 will turn from a ceiling into a floor this time. The pullback will probably hold somewhere between 0.0551 and 0.0565, before the price tries for 0.0649 again. If an hourly candle closes back below 0.0551, then this move won’t be much different from the last two. I don’t hold OSMO; rather than guess when it’ll return to 0.04, I’d rather first see how long it can stay above 0.0565.
#OSMO #AltcoinMoves
Let’s look back at how the last two moves played out. On October 12 at 6 p.m., the price rallied from 0.0363, touched 0.0565 the next morning, then gave it all back. By October 14 at 10 p.m., it had fallen to 0.0375, almost back where it started. Then, at 5 a.m. on October 15, it rallied from 0.0391, surged to 0.0540 within a couple of hours, and was back at 0.0395 by the afternoon of the 17th. Both times, the price retraced to its starting point in about two days, leaving those who chased the rally holding the bag for one another.
This time, the setup is a little different. The lows before each push higher have been rising: 0.0375, 0.0395, 0.0411, and the overnight low today was only 0.0423. The 6 p.m. hourly candle saw $1.5 million in volume, more than the $1.03 million during the wildest hour on the 13th. At 7 p.m., the price pulled back to 0.0551. It was bought back up after dipping less than 3% below 0.0565. It’s now at 0.0608, and today’s high is the highest since May 27. My take is that the last two times the price got above 0.05, the spot buyers who chased in on the 13th and 15th rushed to break even. This time, the price has moved past their cost basis, so there’s a lot less selling pressure overhead.
The upper band of the daily Keltner Channel is at 0.0562, almost exactly in line with 0.0565. The daily MACD histogram has grown from 0.00054 to 0.0015. The 1-hour RSI is already at 84.1, so the short-term move is overheated, and a pullback could come at any time. OSMO only has spot trading on Binance, not futures, so there are no shorts being forced to close. This move has been driven by spot buying, and when it pulls back, there won’t be a cascade of liquidations to intensify the sell-off.
While I’m at it, let’s check this morning’s call: at 10:38, I said $AMP would revisit 0.000869. It surged straight to 0.000968 at 2 p.m. I got that one right.
My view is that 0.0565 will turn from a ceiling into a floor this time. The pullback will probably hold somewhere between 0.0551 and 0.0565, before the price tries for 0.0649 again. If an hourly candle closes back below 0.0551, then this move won’t be much different from the last two. I don’t hold OSMO; rather than guess when it’ll return to 0.04, I’d rather first see how long it can stay above 0.0565.
#OSMO #AltcoinMoves