Goldman Sachs upgraded CoreWeave $CRWV to Buy, while cutting its price target from 139 to 106 on the same day.
The rating went up and the price target went down—in the same report. The target was cut by 24%, but the stock fell even further: from its closing high of 107.73 on August 12 to 61.39 at the close on October 16, a drop of 43%. It fell faster than the target was cut—that’s where the 73% upside comes from.
CRWV is up 6.8% premarket, at 65.55. The $CRWVB on Binance is its tokenized version.
Borges’s thesis isn’t about AI demand. She says the market has overestimated the rise in financing costs and underestimated the upward revision to revenue per megawatt. Computing capacity will be tight over the next 24 months, supporting upside to both ARR per megawatt and unlevered IRR, while debt costs are likely to top out after rising by at most another 100–200 bps.
The bond market reads it differently. The 9.75% 2031 bonds’ yield rose from 8.89% in May to a peak of 15.7%; spreads briefly reached 1,071 basis points, and five-year CDS hit 1,117 basis points.
The real variable is whether the “cap on debt costs” holds. If spreads widen another 100 basis points, the 106 target will need to be recalculated.
#BStocks #美股 #CRWV
The rating went up and the price target went down—in the same report. The target was cut by 24%, but the stock fell even further: from its closing high of 107.73 on August 12 to 61.39 at the close on October 16, a drop of 43%. It fell faster than the target was cut—that’s where the 73% upside comes from.
CRWV is up 6.8% premarket, at 65.55. The $CRWVB on Binance is its tokenized version.
Borges’s thesis isn’t about AI demand. She says the market has overestimated the rise in financing costs and underestimated the upward revision to revenue per megawatt. Computing capacity will be tight over the next 24 months, supporting upside to both ARR per megawatt and unlevered IRR, while debt costs are likely to top out after rising by at most another 100–200 bps.
The bond market reads it differently. The 9.75% 2031 bonds’ yield rose from 8.89% in May to a peak of 15.7%; spreads briefly reached 1,071 basis points, and five-year CDS hit 1,117 basis points.
The real variable is whether the “cap on debt costs” holds. If spreads widen another 100 basis points, the 106 target will need to be recalculated.
#BStocks #美股 #CRWV