#比特币重回8.2万美元上方
Two golden crosses: this Bitcoin-hoarding company’s stock rose 717% and 1,774%, respectively—but historical data says the odds this time are only 50% 🦖
🕐 最新解读群里更新
Before the U.S. market opens on October 19, the 50-day moving average of Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin-holding company, is about to cross above its 200-day moving average, forming a golden cross. The company holds Bitcoin worth $69.81 billion, and the crossover could happen as soon as today 📈
The last time this signal appeared was March 2, 2023, when the stock was at $25.29. It then climbed all the way to $473.83 in November 2024, a gain of 1,774%. The time before that was September 15, 2020, when the stock was at $15.57. Five months later, it had risen to $127.29, a gain of 717%. Both times, the signal coincided with major rallies. That’s why traders are watching this moving average now.
But zoom out, and the story changes. Since 1999, Strategy has had 19 golden crosses in total. The stock was up three months later only 11 times, and was still up twelve months later just 10 times—a hit rate of exactly 50%. The median gain over twelve months was just 3.3%. After the golden crosses in 2001 and 2007, the stock fell 61% each time ⚠️
Bitcoin itself, meanwhile, completed a golden cross on September 8. It has rebounded from lows below $60,000 in July and is now back around $82,000. Earlier this month, it briefly topped $87,000, but last week’s weekly close was below a key support level. The premium index for a certain U.S. exchange fell to -0.14, its lowest level since late June, suggesting that U.S. spot buyers haven’t followed through.
My take: a golden cross is an outcome, not a cause. It only shows that the average cost over the past 50 days has risen; it doesn’t guarantee that buyers will be willing to pay more over the next 50 days. There are two things to watch. First, the Fed’s rate decision on October 28: the market currently sees an 85% chance of no change in October and a 75% chance of another 25-basis-point hike by December. Second, 15% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week. Can the AI narrative keep tech stocks afloat?
That $69.8 billion in Bitcoin held by Strategy won’t gain a single coin because of a moving average. But sentiment can push the stock higher—or limit its declines. That’s the double-edged nature of a leveraged Bitcoin-holding company.
Do you think this golden cross is a real breakout, or another signal to sell into? Let’s talk in the comments.
I bring you Bitcoin’s biggest stories every day—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
Two golden crosses: this Bitcoin-hoarding company’s stock rose 717% and 1,774%, respectively—but historical data says the odds this time are only 50% 🦖
🕐 最新解读群里更新
Before the U.S. market opens on October 19, the 50-day moving average of Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin-holding company, is about to cross above its 200-day moving average, forming a golden cross. The company holds Bitcoin worth $69.81 billion, and the crossover could happen as soon as today 📈
The last time this signal appeared was March 2, 2023, when the stock was at $25.29. It then climbed all the way to $473.83 in November 2024, a gain of 1,774%. The time before that was September 15, 2020, when the stock was at $15.57. Five months later, it had risen to $127.29, a gain of 717%. Both times, the signal coincided with major rallies. That’s why traders are watching this moving average now.
But zoom out, and the story changes. Since 1999, Strategy has had 19 golden crosses in total. The stock was up three months later only 11 times, and was still up twelve months later just 10 times—a hit rate of exactly 50%. The median gain over twelve months was just 3.3%. After the golden crosses in 2001 and 2007, the stock fell 61% each time ⚠️
Bitcoin itself, meanwhile, completed a golden cross on September 8. It has rebounded from lows below $60,000 in July and is now back around $82,000. Earlier this month, it briefly topped $87,000, but last week’s weekly close was below a key support level. The premium index for a certain U.S. exchange fell to -0.14, its lowest level since late June, suggesting that U.S. spot buyers haven’t followed through.
My take: a golden cross is an outcome, not a cause. It only shows that the average cost over the past 50 days has risen; it doesn’t guarantee that buyers will be willing to pay more over the next 50 days. There are two things to watch. First, the Fed’s rate decision on October 28: the market currently sees an 85% chance of no change in October and a 75% chance of another 25-basis-point hike by December. Second, 15% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week. Can the AI narrative keep tech stocks afloat?
That $69.8 billion in Bitcoin held by Strategy won’t gain a single coin because of a moving average. But sentiment can push the stock higher—or limit its declines. That’s the double-edged nature of a leveraged Bitcoin-holding company.
Do you think this golden cross is a real breakout, or another signal to sell into? Let’s talk in the comments.
I bring you Bitcoin’s biggest stories every day—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀