After eight consecutive sessions of declines in chip stocks, a meaningful bout of collective relief finally emerged before the market opened. $NVDA steadied near 217, while news that AI server prices had risen by more than 15% and the rollout of a custom NVHBM memory solution provided industry catalysts. Many traders chose to take small positions before the open, hoping to get ahead of a rebound.
But judging by the price structure, this rebound looks more like a technical recovery after a sustained sell-off. The bearish momentum built up over eight down sessions won’t be completely reversed by a single price-hike announcement. For now, the 217 level is just the first short-term foothold against further declines. The key to confirming a trend reversal will be whether trading volume supports the move after the open: if volume expands, the stock holds above this level, and it recovers ground lost over the past few down sessions, the rebound will have a stronger chance of continuing. Otherwise, a weak rebound on declining volume could easily prove to be the final stage of short-covering.
The rationale behind the price increases does have some substance. Demand for AI computing power remains strong, and price-hike signals from the server supply chain suggest that downstream orders have not shrunk despite the share price decline. That is fundamentally different from a rebound driven purely by sentiment. But the market’s real concerns—policy risks related to tariffs and export controls—have not gone away. That sword hanging overhead could at any moment blunt the impact of positive fundamentals.
The key thing to watch now is the first hour after U.S. markets open tonight. Whether $NVDA can hold in the 217–220 range and break higher on expanding volume will determine whether this rebound is a genuine structural recovery or merely a brief pause in the downtrend.
But judging by the price structure, this rebound looks more like a technical recovery after a sustained sell-off. The bearish momentum built up over eight down sessions won’t be completely reversed by a single price-hike announcement. For now, the 217 level is just the first short-term foothold against further declines. The key to confirming a trend reversal will be whether trading volume supports the move after the open: if volume expands, the stock holds above this level, and it recovers ground lost over the past few down sessions, the rebound will have a stronger chance of continuing. Otherwise, a weak rebound on declining volume could easily prove to be the final stage of short-covering.
The rationale behind the price increases does have some substance. Demand for AI computing power remains strong, and price-hike signals from the server supply chain suggest that downstream orders have not shrunk despite the share price decline. That is fundamentally different from a rebound driven purely by sentiment. But the market’s real concerns—policy risks related to tariffs and export controls—have not gone away. That sword hanging overhead could at any moment blunt the impact of positive fundamentals.
The key thing to watch now is the first hour after U.S. markets open tonight. Whether $NVDA can hold in the 217–220 range and break higher on expanding volume will determine whether this rebound is a genuine structural recovery or merely a brief pause in the downtrend.