#BTC Daily Chart | Wyckoff Structure Watch
The lower edge of the upper range was just briefly broken and reclaimed, somewhat like a Spring, but the highs are still moving lower, so the direction remains unclear.
After surging to 87,395 on exceptionally heavy volume on September 21, the price moved sideways. On October 2, it surged to 87,220 on increased volume but failed to make a new high. On October 15, it fell intraday to 79,800, breaking below the previous low of 80,393, then recovered to close at 82,246 on heavy volume. Over the next three days, volume tapered off as the price held above 80,680. The current price is around 82,300.
From a Wyckoff perspective:
- Phase A: The exceptionally heavy volume on September 21 may indicate a BC; the pullback to 82,563 on September 28 formed the AR.
- Phase B: The October 2 attempt to test the high failed, with supply and demand competing within the range.
- Phase C: The October 15 break below support followed by a recovery may indicate a Spring; the subsequent low-volume retest did not break lower.
- Phase D: Not confirmed. The highs have been stepping down: 84,350, 84,150, and 82,900.
Key levels:
- Support: 79,800–80,700
- First resistance: 84,150–84,350
- Strong resistance: 86,700–87,400
The accumulation thesis will hold only if 79,800 holds, the price moves above 84,350 on increased volume, and then holds on a retest. If so, it could head back to 87,400 for another test. A high-volume close below 79,800 would suggest this recovery was a false move, favoring a SOW, with 78,000 as the next level to watch below.
Next, watch whether the rebound comes with increased volume. A grind higher on declining volume doesn’t count.
This is not investment advice.
The lower edge of the upper range was just briefly broken and reclaimed, somewhat like a Spring, but the highs are still moving lower, so the direction remains unclear.
After surging to 87,395 on exceptionally heavy volume on September 21, the price moved sideways. On October 2, it surged to 87,220 on increased volume but failed to make a new high. On October 15, it fell intraday to 79,800, breaking below the previous low of 80,393, then recovered to close at 82,246 on heavy volume. Over the next three days, volume tapered off as the price held above 80,680. The current price is around 82,300.
From a Wyckoff perspective:
- Phase A: The exceptionally heavy volume on September 21 may indicate a BC; the pullback to 82,563 on September 28 formed the AR.
- Phase B: The October 2 attempt to test the high failed, with supply and demand competing within the range.
- Phase C: The October 15 break below support followed by a recovery may indicate a Spring; the subsequent low-volume retest did not break lower.
- Phase D: Not confirmed. The highs have been stepping down: 84,350, 84,150, and 82,900.
Key levels:
- Support: 79,800–80,700
- First resistance: 84,150–84,350
- Strong resistance: 86,700–87,400
The accumulation thesis will hold only if 79,800 holds, the price moves above 84,350 on increased volume, and then holds on a retest. If so, it could head back to 87,400 for another test. A high-volume close below 79,800 would suggest this recovery was a false move, favoring a SOW, with 78,000 as the next level to watch below.
Next, watch whether the rebound comes with increased volume. A grind higher on declining volume doesn’t count.
This is not investment advice.