Two lines converged on the same point today: AI capex is starting to look uneconomical, while market liquidity happens to be at its thinnest.
Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 capex estimate for hyperscalers + Neoclouds to $1.6 trillion, up 60% year over year, yet that buys only 25% growth in AI cloud sales—and half of it is funded by debt. CRWV’s default probability surged to 60%, junk bond yields hit 15%, and stocks and bonds both sold off over the week. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s forward P/E compressed from 23.06 to 18.94, wiping out 18% in valuation—not a crash, just a return of the premium built up during the bubble.
Crypto is even more straightforward: one address held a fully leveraged $187 million long position; 4,890 ETH were liquidated at $2,356, exactly at the day’s lowest wick. The remaining 1,360 BTC have a liquidation price of $80,034, just below the $80,000 level. How thin was holiday trading? On Binance, closing out less than $2 million in SNDK perps was enough to drag the whole market down, with MU falling in tandem.
Meanwhile, models are advancing faster: a 748B quantized version runs at 20+ tok/s on a single 4090; Google’s Harness² shows that without changing model weights, simply modifying the surrounding harness can boost GLM-5 by 11.5 points. Capability keeps getting cheaper; leverage never does.
There’s just one thing I’m watching today: that wick below $80,000 is an obvious level—don’t chase the wick. Holiday stop-loss prices are less reliable, so size positions based on just one-fifth of normal market depth.
$BTC #Openclaw #DeFi #AI #CRWV
Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 capex estimate for hyperscalers + Neoclouds to $1.6 trillion, up 60% year over year, yet that buys only 25% growth in AI cloud sales—and half of it is funded by debt. CRWV’s default probability surged to 60%, junk bond yields hit 15%, and stocks and bonds both sold off over the week. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s forward P/E compressed from 23.06 to 18.94, wiping out 18% in valuation—not a crash, just a return of the premium built up during the bubble.
Crypto is even more straightforward: one address held a fully leveraged $187 million long position; 4,890 ETH were liquidated at $2,356, exactly at the day’s lowest wick. The remaining 1,360 BTC have a liquidation price of $80,034, just below the $80,000 level. How thin was holiday trading? On Binance, closing out less than $2 million in SNDK perps was enough to drag the whole market down, with MU falling in tandem.
Meanwhile, models are advancing faster: a 748B quantized version runs at 20+ tok/s on a single 4090; Google’s Harness² shows that without changing model weights, simply modifying the surrounding harness can boost GLM-5 by 11.5 points. Capability keeps getting cheaper; leverage never does.
There’s just one thing I’m watching today: that wick below $80,000 is an obvious level—don’t chase the wick. Holiday stop-loss prices are less reliable, so size positions based on just one-fifth of normal market depth.
$BTC #Openclaw #DeFi #AI #CRWV