$A (formerly EOS) fell from 0.1162 on October 17 to 0.0860 this morning, a drop of 26%, while Binance futures open interest grew by 20% in the final nine hours: from 43.12 million tokens at 10 p.m. last night to 52.36 million at 7 a.m. today.
Some background first. From noon to 7 p.m. on October 17, open interest surged from 34.28 million tokens to 53.13 million. Those piling in during that move were longs. Over the next day or so, the price pulled back and open interest fell to 43.12 million, flushing out some of those longs. After 10 p.m. last night, it was shorts who started entering. Futures trading volume over the past 24 hours was $22.86 million, versus just $3.32 million in spot—about seven times as much. This drop was driven mainly by futures.
Who’s adding to their positions this time? The account-based long ratio fell from 63.5% to 42.8% by 9 a.m. today, its lowest since data began on September 28. In the past 500 hours, it has been below 50% only during these six hours today. The long share of positions held by the largest traders fell from 65% to around 58%. They trimmed their longs a little, but longs still have the upper hand. Put simply, a large number of small accounts are chasing shorts at these low prices.
These new short positions piled up between 0.0950 and 0.0860. Weighted by futures trading volume over those nine hours, their average entry price was about 0.0896. The current price is 0.0906, so they’re already out of profit. If the price rises, they’ll have to buy back to close their positions—that’s the fuel for a rebound. The funding rate bottomed out at just -0.019%, so it’s cheap for shorts to hold their positions. Funding costs won’t force them out; only the price can.
Technically, the low of 0.0860 coincides with the daily EMA200 (0.0865). On the 4-hour chart, the KDJ J-value hit 1.1, with K at 15.2 and D at 22.2; the 4-hour RSI is 37.9. There’s only one comparable instance in the past three weeks: at 5 p.m. on October 16, the long ratio fell to 52.4%, after which the price rose as much as 16% over the next 24 hours. That’s just one data point, so I’m treating it as a reference only.
My view is that 0.0860 was where retail short positions were most crowded. Next, we’ll likely see a round of short covering, with 0.0950 as the first target—the level where this batch of shorts started piling in. If the daily candle closes below 0.0861, I’ll take back this view; the next level to watch is around 0.078, near September 18. I have no position in $A and won’t act unless it gets back above the daily EMA50 at 0.0920.
#合约数据 #Altcoins
Some background first. From noon to 7 p.m. on October 17, open interest surged from 34.28 million tokens to 53.13 million. Those piling in during that move were longs. Over the next day or so, the price pulled back and open interest fell to 43.12 million, flushing out some of those longs. After 10 p.m. last night, it was shorts who started entering. Futures trading volume over the past 24 hours was $22.86 million, versus just $3.32 million in spot—about seven times as much. This drop was driven mainly by futures.
Who’s adding to their positions this time? The account-based long ratio fell from 63.5% to 42.8% by 9 a.m. today, its lowest since data began on September 28. In the past 500 hours, it has been below 50% only during these six hours today. The long share of positions held by the largest traders fell from 65% to around 58%. They trimmed their longs a little, but longs still have the upper hand. Put simply, a large number of small accounts are chasing shorts at these low prices.
These new short positions piled up between 0.0950 and 0.0860. Weighted by futures trading volume over those nine hours, their average entry price was about 0.0896. The current price is 0.0906, so they’re already out of profit. If the price rises, they’ll have to buy back to close their positions—that’s the fuel for a rebound. The funding rate bottomed out at just -0.019%, so it’s cheap for shorts to hold their positions. Funding costs won’t force them out; only the price can.
Technically, the low of 0.0860 coincides with the daily EMA200 (0.0865). On the 4-hour chart, the KDJ J-value hit 1.1, with K at 15.2 and D at 22.2; the 4-hour RSI is 37.9. There’s only one comparable instance in the past three weeks: at 5 p.m. on October 16, the long ratio fell to 52.4%, after which the price rose as much as 16% over the next 24 hours. That’s just one data point, so I’m treating it as a reference only.
My view is that 0.0860 was where retail short positions were most crowded. Next, we’ll likely see a round of short covering, with 0.0950 as the first target—the level where this batch of shorts started piling in. If the daily candle closes below 0.0861, I’ll take back this view; the next level to watch is around 0.078, near September 18. I have no position in $A and won’t act unless it gets back above the daily EMA50 at 0.0920.
#合约数据 #Altcoins