Correction: The $AVA recovery thesis is invalidated after two consecutive closes below 0.3207
First, I’ll own it: In the early hours of October 18, I posted a confirmation that $AVA had recovered, with the criteria stated clearly: the recovery would hold if the close stayed above 0.3387, and be invalidated if the close fell back below 0.3207. The close has now confirmed the latter.
Data (Beijing time, Binance spot):
· 03:00 close: 0.3234, first falling below the 0.3387 recovery level;
· 06:00 close: 0.3199; 07:00 close: 0.3198. Two consecutive candles closed below 0.3207, with an intraday low of 0.3138 at 07:00;
· Before publication, spot was around 0.323, down about 17.4% over 24h, with 24h spot volume of about 13.4 million USDT.
Two details not to overlook: first, volume on these two breakdown candles was only about 229,000 / 213,000 USDT—not a high-volume collapse. Second, this morning $BTC had already climbed above 82,300, while AVA was weak on its own, not dragged down by the broader market. The 08:00 candle has moved back above 0.3207 intraday, but it hasn’t closed yet, so it doesn’t count.
My view: Treat this recovery attempt as invalidated, with 0.3207 now acting as resistance on rebounds. From here, I’m watching closes only: a close back above 0.3387 is needed before reconsidering the invalidation; a single candle recovering 0.3207 is only a sign to watch for stabilization. If it closes below 0.3138 again, the next level to watch is around 0.30. I haven’t found any clear new negative catalyst for AVA today. Funding rates/open interest data were unavailable (no major perpetual contracts listed).
Risk warning: AVA’s order book is thin and wicks are frequent. An invalidated recovery thesis doesn’t mean you should chase shorts. Avoid taking large directional bets near key levels; rebounds can be just as swift.
Which side are you on: is the recovery truly over this time, or is this a false breakdown near the level, with a closing recovery leaving room for another attempt?
#AVA #Travala #Altcoins
First, I’ll own it: In the early hours of October 18, I posted a confirmation that $AVA had recovered, with the criteria stated clearly: the recovery would hold if the close stayed above 0.3387, and be invalidated if the close fell back below 0.3207. The close has now confirmed the latter.
Data (Beijing time, Binance spot):
· 03:00 close: 0.3234, first falling below the 0.3387 recovery level;
· 06:00 close: 0.3199; 07:00 close: 0.3198. Two consecutive candles closed below 0.3207, with an intraday low of 0.3138 at 07:00;
· Before publication, spot was around 0.323, down about 17.4% over 24h, with 24h spot volume of about 13.4 million USDT.
Two details not to overlook: first, volume on these two breakdown candles was only about 229,000 / 213,000 USDT—not a high-volume collapse. Second, this morning $BTC had already climbed above 82,300, while AVA was weak on its own, not dragged down by the broader market. The 08:00 candle has moved back above 0.3207 intraday, but it hasn’t closed yet, so it doesn’t count.
My view: Treat this recovery attempt as invalidated, with 0.3207 now acting as resistance on rebounds. From here, I’m watching closes only: a close back above 0.3387 is needed before reconsidering the invalidation; a single candle recovering 0.3207 is only a sign to watch for stabilization. If it closes below 0.3138 again, the next level to watch is around 0.30. I haven’t found any clear new negative catalyst for AVA today. Funding rates/open interest data were unavailable (no major perpetual contracts listed).
Risk warning: AVA’s order book is thin and wicks are frequent. An invalidated recovery thesis doesn’t mean you should chase shorts. Avoid taking large directional bets near key levels; rebounds can be just as swift.
Which side are you on: is the recovery truly over this time, or is this a false breakdown near the level, with a closing recovery leaving room for another attempt?
#AVA #Travala #Altcoins