The SEC just approved a trading rule that sounds almost unbelievable: You can bet on earnings data from publicly listed companies on an options exchange, and once a contract settles and you get paid, the money will never be clawed back—even if the company later changes its story and says it got the numbers wrong. Specifically, Cboe has been approved to launch binary options tied to an exchange’s trading volume, subscription revenue, and Bitcoin production at mining company MARA. These contracts have only two possible outcomes: hit the target and you get $1; miss it and the contract is worth nothing. The most striking part is the settlement provision: settlement is based on the earnings data the company first files with the SEC. Even if the company issues a correction months later and the actual figures fall below the threshold, the money already paid out remains completely unaffected. It effectively turns earnings reports into a pure game of chance. Correcting earnings data is normally a routine part of financial markets, but under these new rules, the first set of numbers in black and white is final. Even if they’re later proven to be the result of an accounting error, winners still walk away with the money, and losers have no recourse. From now on, when trading crypto-themed stocks around earnings, it won’t just be about who can get the numbers right—you’ll also be betting on who can move fastest after someone mistypes a figure.

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