#纳指100本周跌5.5%创18个月最大周跌幅 Tomorrow in the South Korean stock market, don’t rush to buy the dip—first see which way these two forces are pulling
Bottom line: I expect choppy trading with a slight rebound in the short term, but I wouldn’t dare bet heavily on a “trend reversal.” SK Hynix’s ADR fell 6.58% last Friday, and KOSPI200 overnight futures plunged 3.5% in response. South Korean stocks will almost certainly have to swallow that wave of fear at Monday’s open. But keep in mind that the market had already staged a rebound during Friday’s session, and foreign investors returned as buyers, snapping up over 300 billion won worth of shares. That suggests some people thought the sell-off had gone far enough.
The news around Hynix is mixed. On the positive side, AMD CEO Lisa Su personally confirmed that Hynix will supply HBM4, so Samsung won’t have the market to itself. On the negative side, there are signs of delays in HBM4 equipment orders. The market is concerned about technical bottlenecks, or that Hynix may be deliberately holding back capacity to protect profits from conventional DRAM. I took a look at community discussions: panicked sellers and the die-hard “₩200,000 Hynix” bulls are still at each other’s throats, so sentiment hasn’t fully cooled.
I haven’t seen any clear unusual activity in Hynix-related contracts pointing to early on-chain pricing, so I won’t make anything up. My take: a lower open tomorrow is likely, but whether the market can recover afterward will depend on whether foreign investors keep buying or start selling during the first half-hour of trading. If the dip is quickly bought up, expect a short-term rebound and recovery. If it drifts lower without much volume, the correction isn’t over yet. $KORU $SKHYNIX $SOXL
Bottom line: I expect choppy trading with a slight rebound in the short term, but I wouldn’t dare bet heavily on a “trend reversal.” SK Hynix’s ADR fell 6.58% last Friday, and KOSPI200 overnight futures plunged 3.5% in response. South Korean stocks will almost certainly have to swallow that wave of fear at Monday’s open. But keep in mind that the market had already staged a rebound during Friday’s session, and foreign investors returned as buyers, snapping up over 300 billion won worth of shares. That suggests some people thought the sell-off had gone far enough.
The news around Hynix is mixed. On the positive side, AMD CEO Lisa Su personally confirmed that Hynix will supply HBM4, so Samsung won’t have the market to itself. On the negative side, there are signs of delays in HBM4 equipment orders. The market is concerned about technical bottlenecks, or that Hynix may be deliberately holding back capacity to protect profits from conventional DRAM. I took a look at community discussions: panicked sellers and the die-hard “₩200,000 Hynix” bulls are still at each other’s throats, so sentiment hasn’t fully cooled.
I haven’t seen any clear unusual activity in Hynix-related contracts pointing to early on-chain pricing, so I won’t make anything up. My take: a lower open tomorrow is likely, but whether the market can recover afterward will depend on whether foreign investors keep buying or start selling during the first half-hour of trading. If the dip is quickly bought up, expect a short-term rebound and recovery. If it drifts lower without much volume, the correction isn’t over yet. $KORU $SKHYNIX $SOXL