BTC: DEEP CORRECTION CONTINUES IN THE PRICE ACTION! I MADE THIS ANALYSIS MONTHS AGO AND HAVE BEEN HAMMERING THE POINT AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY! NOW THE BULL CROWD IS ECHOING MY ANALYSIS! THE LACK OF ETHICS HERE IS SAD 🗣️
Ninjas, $BTC remains in an important decision zone. For MONTHS, I’ve been highlighting the formation of the exchange’s consolidation box for a shakeout, the difficulty of breaking through resistance, and the concentration of liquidity in lower regions. MAKE IT CLEAR IN EVERY LIVESTREAM THAT WE ARE NOT IN A BULL MARKET, BUT RATHER SEEING MOVES COORDINATED THROUGH MANIPULATION, WITH MANY MORE CORRECTIONS TO COME.
Current conditions reinforce the need for caution. I maintain my primary BEARISH outlook. Recent data show signs of weakening that deserve attention.
1. MARKET STRUCTURE | LOSING MOMENTUM
Our pullback, flagged in July with a bearish bias, shows that buying interest still exists, but the structure is struggling to sustain expansion moves toward the upper end of the projected range.
In our macro analysis, we’re seeing a slowdown in buying strength, resistance to further moves, and reduced participation in trading. The market also has an important characteristic: relatively quick recovery moves (liquidity sweeps), followed by difficulty holding prices above resistance zones, such as our key level at 85.5.
The $BTC remains in a structural adjustment phase, searching for liquidity before a more consistent recovery.
2. DECISION ZONES | WHERE IS THE LIQUIDITY?
Price action highlights areas worth monitoring.
Resistance: $82,500 | $85,500 | $88,000
Support: $81,000 | $80,000 | $78,000 | $76,000
The area between $78,000 and $80,000 is particularly important, both because of historical price action and the concentration of buying interest identified in recent studies.
A sustained break below this range, accompanied by greater selling pressure, would significantly increase the likelihood of a deep correction.
In this scenario, the $67,000–$63,000 area becomes a structural reference for our closing target. And $58,000–$50,000 is our accumulation base, with a percentage within the Price range for a deep corrective move.
On the other hand, a recovery of $85,500 and then $88,000, accompanied by consistent demand, would ease immediate corrective pressure. It would take price to the final base at the 93K high—the last point of the shakeout—which would not invalidate the bearish outlook; quite the opposite.
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3. MARKET PARTICIPATION | CAPITAL CONTRACTION
The latest data show a decline in trader participation in the derivatives market. Total exposure is close to $52 billion, down 0.67% over the past 24 hours, while trading volume was around $6.48 billion on the main market being monitored.
What does this mean, Ninjas? 🥷
It means some positions are being closed or reduced, while buying strength is insufficient to support a more consistent recovery. But remember: reducing positions does not necessarily mean money is leaving the market!
Another important point is that BTC is facing resistance at higher levels, while institutional demand is losing momentum and significant liquidity is concentrated below the current price.
And here’s a point I always emphasize in our analysis: a rising price does not necessarily mean new money is coming in! The market can appreciate through the movement of capital already in circulation. When this happens without consistent demand growth, the rally may lose support and become more vulnerable to selling pressure.
In altcoins, the declining share of assets outperforming Bitcoin also points to a less broad-based recovery. The market still has areas of support, but buying expansion remains limited.
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4. ETFs | INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS LOSE MOMENTUM
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $617 million in net outflows from the start of October through the 16th.
Net outflows were close to $228 million during the week of October 12–16 alone.
$ETH also faced institutional selling pressure, with approximately $400 million in net outflows over the same period.
The problem is not just withdrawals, but the lack of consistent inflows from buyers.
When the market loses its ability to consistently attract institutional demand, recovery moves may face greater difficulty. I’ve already explained this in a livestream.
This does not mean that institutional investors are abandoning Bitcoin across the board. The funds’ cumulative historical net balance remains positive.
However, recent flows point to a decline in marginal demand, right at a time of structural resistance.
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5. UNITED STATES | DEBT, INFLATION, AND INTEREST RATES
U.S. federal debt has already surpassed $40 trillion, raising concerns about the country’s fiscal situation and the cost of financing the government. With high interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures, the situation becomes even more delicate, making potential rate cuts by the Fed more difficult.
That’s why we need to keep an eye on U.S. Treasury yields, the strength of the dollar, and interest rate expectations. After all, when financial conditions become more restrictive, capital tends to become more selective, reducing appetite for risk assets, including crypto.
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6. CHINA | SLOWDOWN AND PRESSURE ON GROWTH
The Chinese economy continues to face challenges related to the property sector, domestic demand, and the recovery in consumption.
The IMF projects growth of around 4.5% for 2026, with a slowdown expected in 2027.
A weaker Chinese economy could put pressure on international trade, commodities, and global growth expectations.
This scenario also affects international risk appetite.
For the crypto market, the impact is not necessarily direct, but comes through financial conditions and investors’ willingness to increase their exposure. Got it??
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7. JAPAN | WATCH INTERNATIONAL LIQUIDITY
The Bank of Japan remains an important variable for global markets.
The path of Japanese monetary policy normalization could change financing costs and influence international capital flows.
A significant appreciation of the yen, accompanied by the unwinding of positions funded in Japanese currency, could trigger adjustments across different asset classes.
This mechanism deserves attention because risk-reduction moves can affect stocks, currencies, and cryptocurrencies simultaneously.
Japan therefore remains an important item on the macroeconomic radar.
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8. STATISTICAL SCENARIOS | CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
The combination of technical, institutional, and macroeconomic data favors a cautious stance at this point. Price action is 100% corrective, with no macro reversal.
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9. STRUCTURAL RECOVERY SCENARIO
The market recovers key resistance levels when demand expands and consistent institutional flows return.
This scenario would reduce the likelihood of the correction continuing immediately. But in my assessment, Bitcoin has not yet completed the corrective move I’ve been projecting.
We’re not just analyzing price. We’re watching capital flows, the ability of demand to hold up, and the economic context that influences the decisions of major participants.
The market continues to offer opportunities, but also carries significant risks for anyone who mistakes a temporary recovery for a definitive reversal.
A correction does not necessarily mean a change in the long-term structural trend. The market can make deep adjustments before conditions are right for a new expansion.
The key now is to monitor liquidity, respect decision zones, and avoid jumping the gun without confirmation.
The market doesn’t need to go up every day to offer opportunities. Many times, patience is exactly what allows you to take advantage of the best moves.
We’re keeping it on the radar. 🥷
Strategic Analyst | Financial Markets and Crypto Asset Intelligence
#ThaiTraderOficial | NoRadarDaNinja
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