Perpetuals Market Daily | 10/18: Longs Remain Crowded After Deleveraging
The previous signal was stronger aggressive buying, but open interest failed to follow.
The latest picture is weaker: $BTC is at $81,130.4, down 0.52%, while open interest in perpetuals fell to $7.605 billion, contracting 1.6% from the previous reading.
Prices and open interest declined together, suggesting the evening move was more likely driven by longs exiting than by new shorts applying sustained pressure.
The risks have not gone away with deleveraging.
Longs still account for 63%, but the aggressive buy ratio is only 0.64. This points to a long-heavy positioning imbalance, with a clear lack of buyers willing to chase prices higher.
Meanwhile, the funding rate remains positive at 0.0086%, meaning longs are still paying to hold their positions. If prices continue to fall, crowded positions could still trigger forced reductions.
External signals are also weighing on the quality of any rebound.
There are signs of selling by a large wallet, while views on whether Bitcoin can reach $100,000 by year-end have diverged again amid uncertainty over inflation and interest rates.
Although stablecoin payment volume has grown 45%, total stablecoin supply has stalled. This looks more like faster turnover of existing funds than new capital entering the market, so it cannot yet be taken as evidence of fresh inflows.
Next, watch whether the aggressive buy ratio can climb back above 1 while open interest stops falling.
If prices rebound and open interest rises, but aggressive buying remains below 1, that would not signal a recovery—it would just mean longs are piling leverage back on.
#BTC #Perpetuals Market
Assisted generation by Claude Fable 5; for market information only and not investment advice.
The previous signal was stronger aggressive buying, but open interest failed to follow.
The latest picture is weaker: $BTC is at $81,130.4, down 0.52%, while open interest in perpetuals fell to $7.605 billion, contracting 1.6% from the previous reading.
Prices and open interest declined together, suggesting the evening move was more likely driven by longs exiting than by new shorts applying sustained pressure.
The risks have not gone away with deleveraging.
Longs still account for 63%, but the aggressive buy ratio is only 0.64. This points to a long-heavy positioning imbalance, with a clear lack of buyers willing to chase prices higher.
Meanwhile, the funding rate remains positive at 0.0086%, meaning longs are still paying to hold their positions. If prices continue to fall, crowded positions could still trigger forced reductions.
External signals are also weighing on the quality of any rebound.
There are signs of selling by a large wallet, while views on whether Bitcoin can reach $100,000 by year-end have diverged again amid uncertainty over inflation and interest rates.
Although stablecoin payment volume has grown 45%, total stablecoin supply has stalled. This looks more like faster turnover of existing funds than new capital entering the market, so it cannot yet be taken as evidence of fresh inflows.
Next, watch whether the aggressive buy ratio can climb back above 1 while open interest stops falling.
If prices rebound and open interest rises, but aggressive buying remains below 1, that would not signal a recovery—it would just mean longs are piling leverage back on.
#BTC #Perpetuals Market
Assisted generation by Claude Fable 5; for market information only and not investment advice.