$EPIC spot fell 13% today, from 0.30 to 0.26. The wave of futures longs that surged in yesterday when the price hit 0.335 cut their holdings by coin count from 15.39 million to 13.06 million, a drop of 15%. But among the largest accounts with the heaviest positions on Binance Futures, the share of long positions actually rose from 65.4% last night to 69.8%.
Prices are falling and total positions are shrinking, yet large traders are adding longs—the opposite of what retail accounts are doing. By account count, the long-position ratio fell from around 55% to about 52% today, and is now at 53%. Put simply, the longs that got shaken out were mainly retail traders who chased yesterday’s rally, while large traders are stepping in now. Futures volume today was about $38.4 million, compared with only about $5.3 million in spot trading—a sevenfold difference. Leverage trading is still driving the market.
Funding rates have also returned to normal. They settled at +0.107% at 16:00 yesterday and even reached +0.114% at 04:00 this morning, before steadily falling back to +0.005%. Longs no longer have to pay hefty daily holding costs, but those who chased the rally have already closed their positions. What remains are long positions that large traders are gradually building up.
Looking back at my post yesterday at 17:00, I wrote that this bullish candle was driven by futures traders chasing the rally, and that the price would retest 0.251–0.254. If that level failed to hold, it could return to 0.218. Today’s low was 0.239: the price broke below 0.251 but has not reached 0.218. The direction was right, but the move has only gone halfway. At the time, I said I’d change my view only if the 4-hour candle closed above 0.307 and the funding rate returned to within +0.01%. Neither has happened so far.
On the indicators, the 1-hour EMA12 is at 0.262 and the EMA26 at 0.268, with the price below both moving averages. The 1-hour Bollinger midline is at 0.270, and the lower band at 0.242 is just supporting the area around today’s low. The 1-hour ATR14 is 0.015, so another ATR move down from 0.260 would put the price at 0.245. The 4-hour Keltner lower band is at 0.211, coinciding with the October 16 low of 0.211.
My view is that yesterday’s rally-chasing has failed. The 0.239 area will most likely be tested again; if it fails to hold, the price could fall to 0.218–0.211. I don’t take large traders increasing their long-position share from 65% back to 70% as a sign of a bottom. It looks more like the kind of structure we saw on October 16, when they added longs as the price fell. I’ll reconsider if the 4-hour candle closes back above 0.280 and open interest starts rising again at the same time. I’m still flat on EPIC—not buying or shorting.
#EPIC #Futures Open Interest
Prices are falling and total positions are shrinking, yet large traders are adding longs—the opposite of what retail accounts are doing. By account count, the long-position ratio fell from around 55% to about 52% today, and is now at 53%. Put simply, the longs that got shaken out were mainly retail traders who chased yesterday’s rally, while large traders are stepping in now. Futures volume today was about $38.4 million, compared with only about $5.3 million in spot trading—a sevenfold difference. Leverage trading is still driving the market.
Funding rates have also returned to normal. They settled at +0.107% at 16:00 yesterday and even reached +0.114% at 04:00 this morning, before steadily falling back to +0.005%. Longs no longer have to pay hefty daily holding costs, but those who chased the rally have already closed their positions. What remains are long positions that large traders are gradually building up.
Looking back at my post yesterday at 17:00, I wrote that this bullish candle was driven by futures traders chasing the rally, and that the price would retest 0.251–0.254. If that level failed to hold, it could return to 0.218. Today’s low was 0.239: the price broke below 0.251 but has not reached 0.218. The direction was right, but the move has only gone halfway. At the time, I said I’d change my view only if the 4-hour candle closed above 0.307 and the funding rate returned to within +0.01%. Neither has happened so far.
On the indicators, the 1-hour EMA12 is at 0.262 and the EMA26 at 0.268, with the price below both moving averages. The 1-hour Bollinger midline is at 0.270, and the lower band at 0.242 is just supporting the area around today’s low. The 1-hour ATR14 is 0.015, so another ATR move down from 0.260 would put the price at 0.245. The 4-hour Keltner lower band is at 0.211, coinciding with the October 16 low of 0.211.
My view is that yesterday’s rally-chasing has failed. The 0.239 area will most likely be tested again; if it fails to hold, the price could fall to 0.218–0.211. I don’t take large traders increasing their long-position share from 65% back to 70% as a sign of a bottom. It looks more like the kind of structure we saw on October 16, when they added longs as the price fell. I’ll reconsider if the 4-hour candle closes back above 0.280 and open interest starts rising again at the same time. I’m still flat on EPIC—not buying or shorting.
#EPIC #Futures Open Interest