The weekend market is quiet,
but the options market has already made its position clear 😅
Derive’s data is right there:
the odds of $BTC hitting $100,000 before Christmas
have dropped another 2.8 percentage points recently,
leaving just 9.7%.
I did the math:
it’s hovering around $81,600 now,
so it still needs to climb more than 20% to reach $100,000,
with just over two months to go.
We’ve seen moves like that in crypto before.
The hard part is the current environment:
ETFs are still seeing outflows,
and the US AI stocks just went through another round of selling.
There are clearly fewer people willing to bet on a big year-end rally.
What’s interesting is the divergence:
most analysts are still talking bullish,
but the options market, where people are putting real money on the line,
is getting more and more defensive.
I trust the latter a little more.
People can talk tough,
but options premiums don’t lie.
Of course, 9.7% isn’t zero.
If we get a strong, high-volume bullish candle that reclaims the weekly level at $82,800,
those odds will have to be recalculated immediately.
What do you think?
Is there still a chance we’ll touch $100,000 before year-end,
or should we just buckle down and ride out this consolidation?
$BTC #比特币 #OptionsMarket
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
but the options market has already made its position clear 😅
Derive’s data is right there:
the odds of $BTC hitting $100,000 before Christmas
have dropped another 2.8 percentage points recently,
leaving just 9.7%.
I did the math:
it’s hovering around $81,600 now,
so it still needs to climb more than 20% to reach $100,000,
with just over two months to go.
We’ve seen moves like that in crypto before.
The hard part is the current environment:
ETFs are still seeing outflows,
and the US AI stocks just went through another round of selling.
There are clearly fewer people willing to bet on a big year-end rally.
What’s interesting is the divergence:
most analysts are still talking bullish,
but the options market, where people are putting real money on the line,
is getting more and more defensive.
I trust the latter a little more.
People can talk tough,
but options premiums don’t lie.
Of course, 9.7% isn’t zero.
If we get a strong, high-volume bullish candle that reclaims the weekly level at $82,800,
those odds will have to be recalculated immediately.
What do you think?
Is there still a chance we’ll touch $100,000 before year-end,
or should we just buckle down and ride out this consolidation?
$BTC #比特币 #OptionsMarket
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.