This week, the ledger has 14 calls: 9 right and 5 wrong. Let me get the uncomfortable truth out of the way first.
I started the week on a 7-win streak and got a little overconfident. Then CPI came out: the overall figure was 3.7%, beating expectations across the board, and rate-hike pricing briefly shot up to 50%. That fake breakout at 84,362 on $BTC got hammered all the way back down. $ETH broke 2,400 and shot to the top of the Plaza trending list. The funding rate on $SOL turned negative, so shorts got paid. Starting the evening of 10-11, four of my calls in a row were proven wrong. There was no dodging it.
When I'm wrong, I own it—and lay out the ledger. The #14 call from the overnight session on 10-12 hit: a high-volume break below 82,567, with 81,600 in sight. Instead, it fell even further. Last night's overnight call on #23 was also on target: the 82,600 reversal-confirmation line wasn't touched all day, so “no reversal” was confirmed, and price held above 81,000 and kept grinding. At midday today, I posted a new call, #24: price is grinding in the 80,813–82,072 range; a break below 80,813 puts 80,000 in play. It's unfolding now.
Next week, there are only two big things to watch: China's Q3 GDP on Monday at 10:00—the only Tier 1 macro release this year—and Tesla and Meta earnings after the close on Wednesday. We'll find out whether all that AI spending can actually make money. The Fed is in its blackout period, so nobody's talking.
Which wrong call of mine this week do you think I deserved the most? Let's settle it in the comments.
#本周复盘 #Prediction Ledger
I started the week on a 7-win streak and got a little overconfident. Then CPI came out: the overall figure was 3.7%, beating expectations across the board, and rate-hike pricing briefly shot up to 50%. That fake breakout at 84,362 on $BTC got hammered all the way back down. $ETH broke 2,400 and shot to the top of the Plaza trending list. The funding rate on $SOL turned negative, so shorts got paid. Starting the evening of 10-11, four of my calls in a row were proven wrong. There was no dodging it.
When I'm wrong, I own it—and lay out the ledger. The #14 call from the overnight session on 10-12 hit: a high-volume break below 82,567, with 81,600 in sight. Instead, it fell even further. Last night's overnight call on #23 was also on target: the 82,600 reversal-confirmation line wasn't touched all day, so “no reversal” was confirmed, and price held above 81,000 and kept grinding. At midday today, I posted a new call, #24: price is grinding in the 80,813–82,072 range; a break below 80,813 puts 80,000 in play. It's unfolding now.
Next week, there are only two big things to watch: China's Q3 GDP on Monday at 10:00—the only Tier 1 macro release this year—and Tesla and Meta earnings after the close on Wednesday. We'll find out whether all that AI spending can actually make money. The Fed is in its blackout period, so nobody's talking.
Which wrong call of mine this week do you think I deserved the most? Let's settle it in the comments.
#本周复盘 #Prediction Ledger