$ERA surged to 0.0800 this afternoon, 10% above yesterday’s high of 0.0727. But the more sharply it rises, the more new short positions are opened on Binance Futures.
During the 16:00 hour, futures open interest grew from 96.3 million tokens to 107.8 million, up 12% in an hour. Over the same hour, the share of accounts holding longs fell from 59.8% to 56.3%—most of the new arrivals were retail shorts. The biggest position holders are doing the opposite: their long share rose from 54.4% at 08:00 to 57.7%. In the 15:00 candle, which gained 8%, aggressive sell orders still slightly outnumbered aggressive buy orders; buyers were passively placing bids below.
The shorts are paying the price. ERA funding is settled hourly, and all 17 settlements today have been negative, totaling 2.58%. Since the -2% settlement at 20:00 last night, shorts have paid 5.75% altogether. With the price not falling, short positions incur a charge every hour they’re held. Those who can’t take it have to buy back at market, and those buybacks push the price higher.
Technically, the 4-hour Keltner upper band at 0.0733 has been left behind. The 1-hour KDJ J-value is 85, not yet at an extreme level; the 1-hour ATR is 0.0033, so a 4% move up or down in one candle is quite normal. The daily EMAs 12, 26, and 50 are clustered between 0.0654 and 0.0662—that zone is the foundation of this entire move.
What makes me uneasy is the volume profile: at 15:00, futures volume was $17.8 million, while spot volume was only $1.9 million. 90% of the volume was in futures. Once short covering ends, the price could easily spike and then fall back, as it did on October 11.
Yesterday I said that if 0.0655 held, we could try for 0.0727 again; a close below it would mean buyers had pulled out and shorts had been right to pay that 2%. Instead, the 1-hour candle closed at 0.0650 at 22:00, and the overnight low was 0.0614. By my own criteria, the shorts should have won—but today the price went straight to 0.08, and shorts paid another 3.75%. I drew the right line but reached the wrong conclusion.
This time, I think shorts may have to pay another round of tuition: as long as 0.0727 holds and funding stays below -0.1% per hour, there’s probably a second push above 0.08. If funding returns to around zero but the price stops moving, the fuel has run out. I’m still flat on ERA.
#ERA #Funding Rate
During the 16:00 hour, futures open interest grew from 96.3 million tokens to 107.8 million, up 12% in an hour. Over the same hour, the share of accounts holding longs fell from 59.8% to 56.3%—most of the new arrivals were retail shorts. The biggest position holders are doing the opposite: their long share rose from 54.4% at 08:00 to 57.7%. In the 15:00 candle, which gained 8%, aggressive sell orders still slightly outnumbered aggressive buy orders; buyers were passively placing bids below.
The shorts are paying the price. ERA funding is settled hourly, and all 17 settlements today have been negative, totaling 2.58%. Since the -2% settlement at 20:00 last night, shorts have paid 5.75% altogether. With the price not falling, short positions incur a charge every hour they’re held. Those who can’t take it have to buy back at market, and those buybacks push the price higher.
Technically, the 4-hour Keltner upper band at 0.0733 has been left behind. The 1-hour KDJ J-value is 85, not yet at an extreme level; the 1-hour ATR is 0.0033, so a 4% move up or down in one candle is quite normal. The daily EMAs 12, 26, and 50 are clustered between 0.0654 and 0.0662—that zone is the foundation of this entire move.
What makes me uneasy is the volume profile: at 15:00, futures volume was $17.8 million, while spot volume was only $1.9 million. 90% of the volume was in futures. Once short covering ends, the price could easily spike and then fall back, as it did on October 11.
Yesterday I said that if 0.0655 held, we could try for 0.0727 again; a close below it would mean buyers had pulled out and shorts had been right to pay that 2%. Instead, the 1-hour candle closed at 0.0650 at 22:00, and the overnight low was 0.0614. By my own criteria, the shorts should have won—but today the price went straight to 0.08, and shorts paid another 3.75%. I drew the right line but reached the wrong conclusion.
This time, I think shorts may have to pay another round of tuition: as long as 0.0727 holds and funding stays below -0.1% per hour, there’s probably a second push above 0.08. If funding returns to around zero but the price stops moving, the fuel has run out. I’m still flat on ERA.
#ERA #Funding Rate