A Bitcoin transfer costs just 12 cents, but 70,000 transactions are still waiting for confirmation
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Bitcoin was trading around $81,645 this morning. The cheapest on-chain fee rate has dropped to 1 satoshi per virtual byte—the absolute floor at which nodes are still willing to relay transactions. A standard exchange withdrawal is about 141 virtual bytes, costing roughly 11.5 cents. To take the fast lane, you can pay 2 sats, which comes to just 23 cents.
Strangely, the mempool isn’t empty: 71,454 transactions are waiting in line, totaling 39.1 million virtual bytes. At 1 million bytes per block, that’s about 39 full blocks—enough to keep miners busy for six and a half hours. The real signal today is the contrast between 70,000 backlogged transactions and floor-level fees.
Break it down and it becomes clear: 38.5 million of those 39.1 million bytes are bidding below 1 sat, accounting for 98.5%. Just 589,000 bytes—1.5%—are bidding 1 sat or more. The average fee rate across the entire pool is only 0.167 sats. In other words, most of the transactions waiting in line are bulk batches and data being pushed onto the blockchain. They’re willing to wait, so you can jump ahead of them just by paying 1 sat. What looks like congestion is really a very long parking lot, not a closed door. 🕵️
Here’s a more direct comparison: for the same withdrawal, at 20 sats it would cost $2.30; at 50 sats, $5.76. Today it costs 11.5 cents—that’s 20 to 50 times less. Consolidating 10 small UTXOs into one transaction costs just 59 cents today, compared with $29.49 during busy periods. The weekend really is a good time to consolidate. 💸
But don’t read this as a bullish signal. Fees measure demand for block space, not demand for Bitcoin itself. Those two things often move in opposite directions. What’s more worth watching is the miners’ side of the equation. Difficulty was just raised by 5.92% on October 16, and the average block time is 10.21 minutes. The next adjustment is forecast to be down 1.77%, at block 973728, around October 30. The current height is 971946. At a block reward of 3.125 BTC and a price of $81,645, a block’s base revenue is about $255,000. Fees are almost negligible. Since the halving, miners have become increasingly dependent on the price of Bitcoin. 🦖
My take: these low fees show that real on-chain demand is weak. It doesn’t mean the network is about to have problems, or that the price is about to rise. If fees are still stuck at the floor after U.S. stocks and futures open on Monday, that would suggest the price around $80,000 is being supported by quotes, not actual trading. Conversely, if fees suddenly climb back above 20 sats, that would be a real sign that money is moving on-chain. ⛏️
How much did you pay the last time you withdrew Bitcoin from an exchange? Let’s talk in the comments. 👀
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I’ll help you keep up with the latest Bitcoin developments—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀
🔎 进群看完整分析
Bitcoin was trading around $81,645 this morning. The cheapest on-chain fee rate has dropped to 1 satoshi per virtual byte—the absolute floor at which nodes are still willing to relay transactions. A standard exchange withdrawal is about 141 virtual bytes, costing roughly 11.5 cents. To take the fast lane, you can pay 2 sats, which comes to just 23 cents.
Strangely, the mempool isn’t empty: 71,454 transactions are waiting in line, totaling 39.1 million virtual bytes. At 1 million bytes per block, that’s about 39 full blocks—enough to keep miners busy for six and a half hours. The real signal today is the contrast between 70,000 backlogged transactions and floor-level fees.
Break it down and it becomes clear: 38.5 million of those 39.1 million bytes are bidding below 1 sat, accounting for 98.5%. Just 589,000 bytes—1.5%—are bidding 1 sat or more. The average fee rate across the entire pool is only 0.167 sats. In other words, most of the transactions waiting in line are bulk batches and data being pushed onto the blockchain. They’re willing to wait, so you can jump ahead of them just by paying 1 sat. What looks like congestion is really a very long parking lot, not a closed door. 🕵️
Here’s a more direct comparison: for the same withdrawal, at 20 sats it would cost $2.30; at 50 sats, $5.76. Today it costs 11.5 cents—that’s 20 to 50 times less. Consolidating 10 small UTXOs into one transaction costs just 59 cents today, compared with $29.49 during busy periods. The weekend really is a good time to consolidate. 💸
But don’t read this as a bullish signal. Fees measure demand for block space, not demand for Bitcoin itself. Those two things often move in opposite directions. What’s more worth watching is the miners’ side of the equation. Difficulty was just raised by 5.92% on October 16, and the average block time is 10.21 minutes. The next adjustment is forecast to be down 1.77%, at block 973728, around October 30. The current height is 971946. At a block reward of 3.125 BTC and a price of $81,645, a block’s base revenue is about $255,000. Fees are almost negligible. Since the halving, miners have become increasingly dependent on the price of Bitcoin. 🦖
My take: these low fees show that real on-chain demand is weak. It doesn’t mean the network is about to have problems, or that the price is about to rise. If fees are still stuck at the floor after U.S. stocks and futures open on Monday, that would suggest the price around $80,000 is being supported by quotes, not actual trading. Conversely, if fees suddenly climb back above 20 sats, that would be a real sign that money is moving on-chain. ⛏️
How much did you pay the last time you withdrew Bitcoin from an exchange? Let’s talk in the comments. 👀
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I’ll help you keep up with the latest Bitcoin developments—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀