$FIL Over 24 hours, it fell 9.8%. But from September 24 to today, its daily closes have stayed between 0.99 and 1.23 without breaking out once.
Since October, it has dipped below 1.00 three times: 0.98 on October 3, 0.9858 on October 9, and 0.9999 on October 15. Each time, it later bounced above 1.20. The ceiling has been just as firm: on October 11, it surged to 1.2764 intraday but closed at 1.2287, less than a cent away from the 1.2296 high on September 26.
The biggest difference between today and October 15 is positioning. Around the time it dipped to 0.9999 that night, Binance futures top traders had a 68.75% long position ratio, 63.4% of retail accounts were long, and open interest stood at 49.82 million tokens. Now the price is 1.0546, with top traders at 68.3% and retail at 63.5%—almost identical figures—while open interest is 52.91 million tokens, up about 3.1 million. Crowding hasn’t eased; there are actually more positions. That suggests the flush of longs at the bottom hasn’t happened yet, and the rebound lacks fuel until bulls are forced out.
Yesterday’s midday rally also tells us something. On October 17, between 12 p.m. and 1 p.m., the price jumped from 1.157 to 1.2236, while open interest increased by 1.81 million tokens in that hour—new longs chasing the move. Open interest has now fallen back below the 54.57 million tokens it stood at before the rally. Most of those late buyers have basically left; what remains are longs that entered earlier and have held on throughout.
As for indicators, today at 1 p.m. the price bottomed at 1.04, right on the 4-hour EMA200 (1.0408). The 4-hour RSI is 38.6, still some way from oversold. At noon and 1 p.m., the futures taker buy/sell ratios were just 0.48 and 0.61, meaning sellers were aggressively hitting the market. Further down, the daily EMA50 is at 0.995, coinciding with the bottom of the range. The daily ATR14 is 0.1125, and the range is only about two ATRs wide, so moving through half the range in a day is perfectly normal.
When it surged to 1.19 on October 6, I wrote that a pullback was more likely and set 1.144 as the first target. The next day, it bottomed at 1.0185. The direction was right, but the drop went deeper than I expected. This time, I’m still looking at it as a range.
My view is that if 1.04 doesn’t hold, the price will head toward 1.00 to flush out those extra 3.1 million positions. After that, the bottom of the range will probably hold. If the daily close falls below 0.98, the range is broken, with the next level at 0.91, where the wicks from September 20 and 23 sit. I won’t touch it until open interest falls back below 50 million tokens.
#FIL #Futures data
Since October, it has dipped below 1.00 three times: 0.98 on October 3, 0.9858 on October 9, and 0.9999 on October 15. Each time, it later bounced above 1.20. The ceiling has been just as firm: on October 11, it surged to 1.2764 intraday but closed at 1.2287, less than a cent away from the 1.2296 high on September 26.
The biggest difference between today and October 15 is positioning. Around the time it dipped to 0.9999 that night, Binance futures top traders had a 68.75% long position ratio, 63.4% of retail accounts were long, and open interest stood at 49.82 million tokens. Now the price is 1.0546, with top traders at 68.3% and retail at 63.5%—almost identical figures—while open interest is 52.91 million tokens, up about 3.1 million. Crowding hasn’t eased; there are actually more positions. That suggests the flush of longs at the bottom hasn’t happened yet, and the rebound lacks fuel until bulls are forced out.
Yesterday’s midday rally also tells us something. On October 17, between 12 p.m. and 1 p.m., the price jumped from 1.157 to 1.2236, while open interest increased by 1.81 million tokens in that hour—new longs chasing the move. Open interest has now fallen back below the 54.57 million tokens it stood at before the rally. Most of those late buyers have basically left; what remains are longs that entered earlier and have held on throughout.
As for indicators, today at 1 p.m. the price bottomed at 1.04, right on the 4-hour EMA200 (1.0408). The 4-hour RSI is 38.6, still some way from oversold. At noon and 1 p.m., the futures taker buy/sell ratios were just 0.48 and 0.61, meaning sellers were aggressively hitting the market. Further down, the daily EMA50 is at 0.995, coinciding with the bottom of the range. The daily ATR14 is 0.1125, and the range is only about two ATRs wide, so moving through half the range in a day is perfectly normal.
When it surged to 1.19 on October 6, I wrote that a pullback was more likely and set 1.144 as the first target. The next day, it bottomed at 1.0185. The direction was right, but the drop went deeper than I expected. This time, I’m still looking at it as a range.
My view is that if 1.04 doesn’t hold, the price will head toward 1.00 to flush out those extra 3.1 million positions. After that, the bottom of the range will probably hold. If the daily close falls below 0.98, the range is broken, with the next level at 0.91, where the wicks from September 20 and 23 sit. I won’t touch it until open interest falls back below 50 million tokens.
#FIL #Futures data