A 4.5% weekly drop: only 27 times for the Nasdaq in nearly 10 years
It fell 4.48% this week, closing at 26,140.03 on October 16.
Of those 27 instances, the index closed higher 20 times over the following 12 weeks, with a median gain of 8.8%. Over a 4-week period, there were only 16 instances, with a median gain of 2.6%. In 20 cases, it fell below the event-week close within 20 trading days.
There’s no short-term edge.
The breakdown by size is even more counterintuitive. Of the 7 drops of more than 6%, the median return after 12 weeks was +21.4%, and 6 closed higher. Among the 5 drops of 4%–4.5%, the median was −2.3%, and only 2 closed higher.
The sharpest drops—5 of them—came amid panic over the 2020 circuit breakers, 2025 tariffs, and late 2018. These moments often come close to capitulation.
This time, the drop falls in the 4.5%–5% range. There were 7 such instances: the median return was −0.4% after 4 weeks and +4.8% after 12 weeks.
Binance $QQQB tracks the Nasdaq 100, though the calculation methodology differs somewhat. The market’s position matters more than the size of the drop in explaining what comes next. It is now 5.3% below its October 6 high. When the pullback was less than 10%, there were only 9 instances of a weekly drop of 4% or more; 8 of those were higher 12 weeks later. There’s only one scenario to guard against: a repeat of January 2022, at the start of a rate-hiking cycle.
#纳斯达克 #科技股 #BStocks
It fell 4.48% this week, closing at 26,140.03 on October 16.
Of those 27 instances, the index closed higher 20 times over the following 12 weeks, with a median gain of 8.8%. Over a 4-week period, there were only 16 instances, with a median gain of 2.6%. In 20 cases, it fell below the event-week close within 20 trading days.
There’s no short-term edge.
The breakdown by size is even more counterintuitive. Of the 7 drops of more than 6%, the median return after 12 weeks was +21.4%, and 6 closed higher. Among the 5 drops of 4%–4.5%, the median was −2.3%, and only 2 closed higher.
The sharpest drops—5 of them—came amid panic over the 2020 circuit breakers, 2025 tariffs, and late 2018. These moments often come close to capitulation.
This time, the drop falls in the 4.5%–5% range. There were 7 such instances: the median return was −0.4% after 4 weeks and +4.8% after 12 weeks.
Binance $QQQB tracks the Nasdaq 100, though the calculation methodology differs somewhat. The market’s position matters more than the size of the drop in explaining what comes next. It is now 5.3% below its October 6 high. When the pullback was less than 10%, there were only 9 instances of a weekly drop of 4% or more; 8 of those were higher 12 weeks later. There’s only one scenario to guard against: a repeat of January 2022, at the start of a rate-hiking cycle.
#纳斯达克 #科技股 #BStocks