I think 2026 is a transition window, shifting from the late-stage downturn of the fifth Kondratiev wave (information technology) to the recovery phase of the sixth (AI + energy).
The defining feature is not broad-based prosperity, but repeated bottoming and structural divergence. High interest rates (the 10-year yield is around 5.1%) remain the main constraint.
Asset outlook:
• U.S. tech stocks / Nasdaq: The long-term direction is positive, but volatility is likely in the medium term. Dollar-cost averaging is preferable to chasing highs.
• Bitcoin: The early recovery is continuing, but it looks more like a high-beta asset with some currency-hedging characteristics, and is highly affected by risk appetite.
• Gold: Relatively more resilient; its rising correlation with BTC is a signal.
• Overall: The recovery phase is suited to positioning in core assets, rather than expecting a broad-based rally. The Kondratiev wave sets the direction; interest rates and capital flows set the pace.
$BTC
The defining feature is not broad-based prosperity, but repeated bottoming and structural divergence. High interest rates (the 10-year yield is around 5.1%) remain the main constraint.
Asset outlook:
• U.S. tech stocks / Nasdaq: The long-term direction is positive, but volatility is likely in the medium term. Dollar-cost averaging is preferable to chasing highs.
• Bitcoin: The early recovery is continuing, but it looks more like a high-beta asset with some currency-hedging characteristics, and is highly affected by risk appetite.
• Gold: Relatively more resilient; its rising correlation with BTC is a signal.
• Overall: The recovery phase is suited to positioning in core assets, rather than expecting a broad-based rally. The Kondratiev wave sets the direction; interest rates and capital flows set the pace.
$BTC