80,809 and 80,820, just $11 apart—$BTC hit the brakes at the same pitfall again before dawn
First, pick a side: last night’s 04:00 four-hour candle plunged to a low of 80,820, almost exactly matching yesterday morning’s low of 80,809, then rebounded to close at 81,491. At 08:55 this morning, two sources both confirmed 81,562, with the 24h change around -0.00%, a high of 81,770 and a low of 80,820. The same level has been tested twice without a close below it, so I lean toward there being genuine buyers around 80,800—but I’m only counting closes, not wicks. Which side are you on?
The divergence is over on $ETH ’s side: it dipped to 2,357 overnight, breaking below the previous low of 2,393 before recovering. This morning it was at 2,406, down 0.63% over 24h, clearly weaker than BTC. The money flows line up: during the week of October 12–16, US crypto ETFs saw combined net outflows of about $610.7 million (according to Farside figures cited by multiple media outlets). ETH products accounted for about $320.1 million in outflows, even more than BTC’s roughly $228.4 million. Institutions pulled out of ETH first, so ETH was the weaker one in the market first—nothing mysterious about it.
Leverage is still neutral: funding rates are around +0.0100% for BTC and +0.0036% for ETH, with no crowd leaning too heavily to either side. I couldn’t find an updated figure for liquidations this morning; the latest CoinGlass data, from the afternoon of October 17, showed about $222 million, with longs accounting for roughly 72%. That deleveraging wave happened the day before yesterday.
It’s Sunday, so there’s no US stock market and no major data releases. It’s the second day of the Fed’s blackout period (October 17–29; the meeting is on the 27th–28th, and the market is currently pricing in about an 85% chance of no rate change in October). The only things that could stir things up during the day are oil prices and Middle East headlines. How US stocks and oil open on Monday will be the next real variable.
Altcoins are lively, though: AVA is up about 36% over 24h and ERA about 15%, while BTC is going nowhere. This is localized rotation, not a market-wide risk-on move—don’t mistake excitement in small caps for a trend.
My invalidation level: a four-hour close below 80,800 invalidates the double bottom; treat it as a breakdown from the range. Only after reclaiming 81,770 and then holding above 82,634 on a close would it make sense to talk about a recovery. Until then, expect more choppy trading.
This is just my personal market journal and doesn’t guarantee returns. Sunday liquidity is thin and wicks are plentiful, so manage your own position size.
Pick one: will the double bottom at 80,800 hold and lead to an upside recovery on Monday, or will a third test break it?
$BTC $ETH #比特币 #周末行情 #ETF
First, pick a side: last night’s 04:00 four-hour candle plunged to a low of 80,820, almost exactly matching yesterday morning’s low of 80,809, then rebounded to close at 81,491. At 08:55 this morning, two sources both confirmed 81,562, with the 24h change around -0.00%, a high of 81,770 and a low of 80,820. The same level has been tested twice without a close below it, so I lean toward there being genuine buyers around 80,800—but I’m only counting closes, not wicks. Which side are you on?
The divergence is over on $ETH ’s side: it dipped to 2,357 overnight, breaking below the previous low of 2,393 before recovering. This morning it was at 2,406, down 0.63% over 24h, clearly weaker than BTC. The money flows line up: during the week of October 12–16, US crypto ETFs saw combined net outflows of about $610.7 million (according to Farside figures cited by multiple media outlets). ETH products accounted for about $320.1 million in outflows, even more than BTC’s roughly $228.4 million. Institutions pulled out of ETH first, so ETH was the weaker one in the market first—nothing mysterious about it.
Leverage is still neutral: funding rates are around +0.0100% for BTC and +0.0036% for ETH, with no crowd leaning too heavily to either side. I couldn’t find an updated figure for liquidations this morning; the latest CoinGlass data, from the afternoon of October 17, showed about $222 million, with longs accounting for roughly 72%. That deleveraging wave happened the day before yesterday.
It’s Sunday, so there’s no US stock market and no major data releases. It’s the second day of the Fed’s blackout period (October 17–29; the meeting is on the 27th–28th, and the market is currently pricing in about an 85% chance of no rate change in October). The only things that could stir things up during the day are oil prices and Middle East headlines. How US stocks and oil open on Monday will be the next real variable.
Altcoins are lively, though: AVA is up about 36% over 24h and ERA about 15%, while BTC is going nowhere. This is localized rotation, not a market-wide risk-on move—don’t mistake excitement in small caps for a trend.
My invalidation level: a four-hour close below 80,800 invalidates the double bottom; treat it as a breakdown from the range. Only after reclaiming 81,770 and then holding above 82,634 on a close would it make sense to talk about a recovery. Until then, expect more choppy trading.
This is just my personal market journal and doesn’t guarantee returns. Sunday liquidity is thin and wicks are plentiful, so manage your own position size.
Pick one: will the double bottom at 80,800 hold and lead to an upside recovery on Monday, or will a third test break it?
$BTC $ETH #比特币 #周末行情 #ETF