$NMR This drop is pretty interesting. The price fell a little over 1% in 15 minutes on nearly twice the usual volume, breaking straight below the lower end of the past 20 or so 5-minute candles. But OI is shrinking instead: 15-minute contract OI is down 0.17%, and the 1-hour notional change is also negative. A price drop alongside falling OI looks more like longs deleveraging and getting stopped out than fresh shorts piling in to drive the price down.
The aggressive trade delta is -8.4%, and the buy/sell ratio is 0.84, so there is real selling pressure. But the OI anomaly percentile is still at 87.1%, ranking #11 across the entire pool, which suggests the positioning hasn’t been fully cleared out yet. 24-hour trading volume is only 22.75M, and liquidity isn’t very deep, so wicks are likely at these levels.
First, let’s see whether this deleveraging can stabilize at the bottom of the range. If it can’t, there may be more grinding lower ahead.
The aggressive trade delta is -8.4%, and the buy/sell ratio is 0.84, so there is real selling pressure. But the OI anomaly percentile is still at 87.1%, ranking #11 across the entire pool, which suggests the positioning hasn’t been fully cleared out yet. 24-hour trading volume is only 22.75M, and liquidity isn’t very deep, so wicks are likely at these levels.
First, let’s see whether this deleveraging can stabilize at the bottom of the range. If it can’t, there may be more grinding lower ahead.