#On-Chain Metrics Analysis
BTC: <10Y/<7Y/<5Y Realized Price
The 0–10Y realized price represents the aggregate cost basis of coins active within the past decade; the 6M–5Y, 6M–7Y, and 6M–10Y realized prices progressively expand the long-term holder window. The spot price is above all cost-basis lines, indicating that most coins still have substantial unrealized profits.
High Risk · Profit-Taking Phase
BTC is currently around $81,572, above 4/4 age-band cost-basis lines.
0–10Y: around $64,930; 6M–5Y: around $70,766; 6M–7Y: around $64,143; 6M–10Y: around $55,768.
The spot price is about +15.3% above the 6M–5Y cost basis; the 0–10Y benchmark has completed 1/3 downward crosses (on-chain date: 2026-10-14).
During deep historical bear-market flushes, the 0–10Y benchmark cost basis successively falls below the 6M–5Y, 6M–7Y, and 6M–10Y levels. Only after all three crosses are complete is the market closer to a macro bottom following a thorough transfer of coins to new holders. The benchmark line is still above the long-term cost-basis lines, suggesting profit-taking rather than final capitulation. Risk should be managed in conjunction with spot demand and liquidity.
$BTC
BTC: <10Y/<7Y/<5Y Realized Price
The 0–10Y realized price represents the aggregate cost basis of coins active within the past decade; the 6M–5Y, 6M–7Y, and 6M–10Y realized prices progressively expand the long-term holder window. The spot price is above all cost-basis lines, indicating that most coins still have substantial unrealized profits.
High Risk · Profit-Taking Phase
BTC is currently around $81,572, above 4/4 age-band cost-basis lines.
0–10Y: around $64,930; 6M–5Y: around $70,766; 6M–7Y: around $64,143; 6M–10Y: around $55,768.
The spot price is about +15.3% above the 6M–5Y cost basis; the 0–10Y benchmark has completed 1/3 downward crosses (on-chain date: 2026-10-14).
During deep historical bear-market flushes, the 0–10Y benchmark cost basis successively falls below the 6M–5Y, 6M–7Y, and 6M–10Y levels. Only after all three crosses are complete is the market closer to a macro bottom following a thorough transfer of coins to new holders. The benchmark line is still above the long-term cost-basis lines, suggesting profit-taking rather than final capitulation. Risk should be managed in conjunction with spot demand and liquidity.
$BTC