$BAT rose from 0.1027 on October 8 to 0.2236, more than doubling in a week. Yet among the largest holders by position size on Binance Futures, the share of long positions fell from around 70% before the rally to 49.4% tonight. For the first time in 30 days, shorts outnumbered longs.
With the price doubling while large holders kept reducing their positions as it rose, it looks like early longs were using the rally to sell out. In the 4-hour data, this ratio had bottomed at 51.2% over the past 30 days, and peaked at 72.9% on September 30. Tonight, at 22:00, it broke below that range.
The fuel for this rally came from futures in the first place. Open interest, measured in tokens, rose from 22 million on October 2 to 85.92 million on the afternoon of October 14—nearly fourfold. It has now fallen back to 66.77 million, down 22% from the peak. The price has also pulled back 21% from its high, so capital and price have moved in tandem.
Tonight's drop was the result of selling out. From 20:00 to 22:00, spot fell from 0.1927 to 0.1761, while futures open interest, measured in tokens, dropped from 70.34 million to 66.77 million, a 5% decline—longs were closing. Over the same period, the share of retail accounts taking long positions actually rose from 52.1% to 53.8%; smaller accounts were buying the dip. During the 21:00 hour, futures volume was 7.87 million U, compared with just 1.03 million U on spot. The selling was carried out almost entirely in futures. The funding rate is only -0.012%, so shorts are not crowded at all, and there is no short squeeze to wait for.
Structurally, 0.1915 was the bottom of the 4-day trading range. Tonight, the price closed below it, turning it into resistance. The next closer resistance is the 4-hour EMA26 at 0.1863. The 1-hour RSI at 28.2 is low in the short term, but the 4-hour RSI at 45.2 is still nowhere near oversold. The first support below is the October 15 low of 0.1654, almost aligned with the 4-hour Bollinger lower band near 0.162. Below that is the daily EMA12 at 0.1614, the last line for this trend.
I don't think the pattern of large holders exiting while retail buys has changed. The 0.162–0.165 zone will probably be tested. I'll only accept that this was a shakeout if the 4-hour candle closes back above 0.1915 and the share of large-holder long positions also returns to above 52%. I haven't touched BAT at any point in this rally, and even at 0.162 I'll first watch how well it holds—I'm not going to buy just because it's fallen a lot. Personal opinion for the record.
#BAT #Futures data
With the price doubling while large holders kept reducing their positions as it rose, it looks like early longs were using the rally to sell out. In the 4-hour data, this ratio had bottomed at 51.2% over the past 30 days, and peaked at 72.9% on September 30. Tonight, at 22:00, it broke below that range.
The fuel for this rally came from futures in the first place. Open interest, measured in tokens, rose from 22 million on October 2 to 85.92 million on the afternoon of October 14—nearly fourfold. It has now fallen back to 66.77 million, down 22% from the peak. The price has also pulled back 21% from its high, so capital and price have moved in tandem.
Tonight's drop was the result of selling out. From 20:00 to 22:00, spot fell from 0.1927 to 0.1761, while futures open interest, measured in tokens, dropped from 70.34 million to 66.77 million, a 5% decline—longs were closing. Over the same period, the share of retail accounts taking long positions actually rose from 52.1% to 53.8%; smaller accounts were buying the dip. During the 21:00 hour, futures volume was 7.87 million U, compared with just 1.03 million U on spot. The selling was carried out almost entirely in futures. The funding rate is only -0.012%, so shorts are not crowded at all, and there is no short squeeze to wait for.
Structurally, 0.1915 was the bottom of the 4-day trading range. Tonight, the price closed below it, turning it into resistance. The next closer resistance is the 4-hour EMA26 at 0.1863. The 1-hour RSI at 28.2 is low in the short term, but the 4-hour RSI at 45.2 is still nowhere near oversold. The first support below is the October 15 low of 0.1654, almost aligned with the 4-hour Bollinger lower band near 0.162. Below that is the daily EMA12 at 0.1614, the last line for this trend.
I don't think the pattern of large holders exiting while retail buys has changed. The 0.162–0.165 zone will probably be tested. I'll only accept that this was a shakeout if the 4-hour candle closes back above 0.1915 and the share of large-holder long positions also returns to above 52%. I haven't touched BAT at any point in this rally, and even at 0.162 I'll first watch how well it holds—I'm not going to buy just because it's fallen a lot. Personal opinion for the record.
#BAT #Futures data