The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for 8 straight sessions; all 7 previous instances occurred in bear markets
It closed at 11,137.29 on October 16, down 15.7% over 8 trading days. Since 1994, streaks of 8 or more consecutive declines have occurred only 7 times. This is the 8th; the last was in October 2008.
Over the 20 trading days after those previous 7 streaks, the median return was -4.1%. Only 2 instances ended with gains. In all 7 cases, the index made a new low again within 20 days. It took until 60 days for the median return to recover to +0.5%.
But all 7 instances were below the 200-day moving average, and down 51%–82% from their respective highs. This time is different: the index is 5.1% above its 200-day moving average and 23.9% below its June 22 high.
Looking at it another way: among the 10 instances of 6 or more consecutive declines while above the 200-day moving average, 9 were up after 20 days, with a median gain of +4.0%; after 60 days, 8 were up, with a median gain of +21.8%.
Eight straight declines mean selling pressure has persisted for 8 days; they don’t tell you where the bottom is.
$SOXLB traded $21.36 million yesterday; the inverse $SOXSB traded $1.51 million.
The key variable is what’s driving the decline: the pace of AI capital spending, or a peak in the memory-chip price cycle. With the index above its 200-day moving average, those 7 previous bear-market cases don’t apply.
#半导体 #芯片 #BStocks
It closed at 11,137.29 on October 16, down 15.7% over 8 trading days. Since 1994, streaks of 8 or more consecutive declines have occurred only 7 times. This is the 8th; the last was in October 2008.
Over the 20 trading days after those previous 7 streaks, the median return was -4.1%. Only 2 instances ended with gains. In all 7 cases, the index made a new low again within 20 days. It took until 60 days for the median return to recover to +0.5%.
But all 7 instances were below the 200-day moving average, and down 51%–82% from their respective highs. This time is different: the index is 5.1% above its 200-day moving average and 23.9% below its June 22 high.
Looking at it another way: among the 10 instances of 6 or more consecutive declines while above the 200-day moving average, 9 were up after 20 days, with a median gain of +4.0%; after 60 days, 8 were up, with a median gain of +21.8%.
Eight straight declines mean selling pressure has persisted for 8 days; they don’t tell you where the bottom is.
$SOXLB traded $21.36 million yesterday; the inverse $SOXSB traded $1.51 million.
The key variable is what’s driving the decline: the pace of AI capital spending, or a peak in the memory-chip price cycle. With the index above its 200-day moving average, those 7 previous bear-market cases don’t apply.
#半导体 #芯片 #BStocks