$ERA spot surged from 0.0594 to 0.0727 this afternoon, gaining as much as 22%. At the same time, Binance futures shorts paid a funding rate of 2% in a single settlement, yet more and more traders kept piling in.
Measured in tokens, open interest stood at 54.63 million at 16:00 and reached 82.64 million by 20:00—up 51% in four hours. During that period, the share of accounts holding long positions fell from 57.5% to 55.7%, which means the accounts that came in were clearly leaning short. But among the largest position holders, the long/short ratio actually rose from 1.13 to 1.22.
More importantly, there’s the funding rate. The 20:00 settlement hit the -2% floor. Binance then changed ERA’s settlement interval from four hours to one hour, with the estimated rate at -0.53% at 21:00. The futures price was 0.0650, 3.8% below the spot index. The logic is simple: shorts have to pay half a percentage point for every extra hour they stay in. If the price doesn’t fall, they’ll slowly get bled dry, and those who can’t take it will have to buy back to close their positions.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is 69, and the upper Bollinger Band is at 0.0689; the price hasn’t touched it yet. The daily EMA26 is at 0.0650, almost exactly aligned with the afternoon’s three pullback lows of 0.0655 to 0.0658. That’s the key level separating bulls from bears. Spot trading volume is also worth watching: it was above $1.7 million per hour at both 16:00 and 17:00, but the 20:00 candle has only reached $570,000 so far. Buying pressure is cooling off, and that’s my biggest concern about this rally.
ERA had an almost identical setup on October 10. It surged to 0.1137 in a day, while the funding rate fell as low as -1.38%. At the time, I said that with a spot premium and deeply negative funding, shorts were in greater danger, and that a drop below 0.0795 would mean it was just a one-off pump. The next day it did surge again to 0.0939, but closed that day at 0.0782, then fell all the way to 0.0564 on October 15. The first part of my call was only right for one day; the level I gave in the second part was the right dividing line.
So this time, I’m only looking at the short term: if 0.0655 holds, shorts paying funding hourly probably won’t last long, and a retest of 0.0727 is more likely. But that would be a short squeeze, not a change to the broader downward trend on the daily chart. If the 1-hour candle closes below 0.0655, it means spot buyers have pulled out, and shorts will have gotten their money’s worth from that 2% funding payment. I don’t hold ERA, and I’m staying out of both sides.
#ERA #Funding rate
Measured in tokens, open interest stood at 54.63 million at 16:00 and reached 82.64 million by 20:00—up 51% in four hours. During that period, the share of accounts holding long positions fell from 57.5% to 55.7%, which means the accounts that came in were clearly leaning short. But among the largest position holders, the long/short ratio actually rose from 1.13 to 1.22.
More importantly, there’s the funding rate. The 20:00 settlement hit the -2% floor. Binance then changed ERA’s settlement interval from four hours to one hour, with the estimated rate at -0.53% at 21:00. The futures price was 0.0650, 3.8% below the spot index. The logic is simple: shorts have to pay half a percentage point for every extra hour they stay in. If the price doesn’t fall, they’ll slowly get bled dry, and those who can’t take it will have to buy back to close their positions.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is 69, and the upper Bollinger Band is at 0.0689; the price hasn’t touched it yet. The daily EMA26 is at 0.0650, almost exactly aligned with the afternoon’s three pullback lows of 0.0655 to 0.0658. That’s the key level separating bulls from bears. Spot trading volume is also worth watching: it was above $1.7 million per hour at both 16:00 and 17:00, but the 20:00 candle has only reached $570,000 so far. Buying pressure is cooling off, and that’s my biggest concern about this rally.
ERA had an almost identical setup on October 10. It surged to 0.1137 in a day, while the funding rate fell as low as -1.38%. At the time, I said that with a spot premium and deeply negative funding, shorts were in greater danger, and that a drop below 0.0795 would mean it was just a one-off pump. The next day it did surge again to 0.0939, but closed that day at 0.0782, then fell all the way to 0.0564 on October 15. The first part of my call was only right for one day; the level I gave in the second part was the right dividing line.
So this time, I’m only looking at the short term: if 0.0655 holds, shorts paying funding hourly probably won’t last long, and a retest of 0.0727 is more likely. But that would be a short squeeze, not a change to the broader downward trend on the daily chart. If the 1-hour candle closes below 0.0655, it means spot buyers have pulled out, and shorts will have gotten their money’s worth from that 2% funding payment. I don’t hold ERA, and I’m staying out of both sides.
#ERA #Funding rate