WLD is at $0.52 now, up nearly 40% this month. But it’s worth taking a look at where the money driving it is coming from.
Yesterday, South Korea bought $65 million worth in a single day. The coin’s share of trading volume in Korea is more than 26 times its share of global trading volume. In other words, people around the world have barely touched it, while Koreans are going all in. Anyone who’s seen a coin’s price action propped up by retail buyers in a single region knows this kind of setup can rise fast—and fall just as fast.
On the same day, open interest in futures jumped from $260 million to $320 million—up 23% in a day. Most of that money is borrowed, not actual cash used to buy spot. That’s fine while the price is rising, but if it turns around, all that leverage can trigger a cascade and take itself down.
There’s also a fundamental issue. The coin has a maximum supply of 10 billion tokens, but only 3.8 billion have been released so far, with more than 60% still waiting in the wings. Its market cap is $2 billion, but its fully diluted valuation comes to $5.2 billion—more than two and a half times as much. That kind of structure creates long-term pressure.
So what do I make of this rally? The price really has gone up, but the three things supporting it aren’t very solid: buying concentrated in one region, leverage piling up quickly, and tokens that haven’t been released yet.
As for the levels, $0.50 has been tested several times this month and is something of a dividing line. $0.62 above it is the monthly high; it’s been hit once. Right now, $0.52 is stuck in the middle.
With open interest rising this fast, I’m not chasing it. I’ll wait for leverage to get flushed out and consider it again if $0.50 holds. If it really loses $0.50, I’ll treat this run as over and stay out of it. #wld
$WLD
Yesterday, South Korea bought $65 million worth in a single day. The coin’s share of trading volume in Korea is more than 26 times its share of global trading volume. In other words, people around the world have barely touched it, while Koreans are going all in. Anyone who’s seen a coin’s price action propped up by retail buyers in a single region knows this kind of setup can rise fast—and fall just as fast.
On the same day, open interest in futures jumped from $260 million to $320 million—up 23% in a day. Most of that money is borrowed, not actual cash used to buy spot. That’s fine while the price is rising, but if it turns around, all that leverage can trigger a cascade and take itself down.
There’s also a fundamental issue. The coin has a maximum supply of 10 billion tokens, but only 3.8 billion have been released so far, with more than 60% still waiting in the wings. Its market cap is $2 billion, but its fully diluted valuation comes to $5.2 billion—more than two and a half times as much. That kind of structure creates long-term pressure.
So what do I make of this rally? The price really has gone up, but the three things supporting it aren’t very solid: buying concentrated in one region, leverage piling up quickly, and tokens that haven’t been released yet.
As for the levels, $0.50 has been tested several times this month and is something of a dividing line. $0.62 above it is the monthly high; it’s been hit once. Right now, $0.52 is stuck in the middle.
With open interest rising this fast, I’m not chasing it. I’ll wait for leverage to get flushed out and consider it again if $0.50 holds. If it really loses $0.50, I’ll treat this run as over and stay out of it. #wld
$WLD