DOT is at 1.15u now, and it’s been grinding sideways in this 1.0–1.3 range for a whole month.
First, a common trap a lot of people fall into. Open a market app and look at DOT: its fully diluted valuation is exactly the same as its market cap. It looks like everything is already in circulation, with no tokens waiting to unlock and no selling pressure. That’s not really the case.
It does indeed have no lockup-and-unlock schedule, but it’s still minting new tokens every year. A year ago, the total supply was 1.61 billion; now it’s 1.71 billion. Nearly 100 million tokens have been added in a year. The total supply shown in the app is the number of tokens already minted, not the maximum it can ever reach—that’s why the two figures look the same.
The actual cap is 2.1 billion tokens, set by a referendum that over 80% of voters supported. It used to have unlimited inflation with no ceiling; now there’s a hard cap. At the current rate, another 390 million tokens will be issued gradually, equivalent to 23% of the current circulating supply.
So, should you run? I don’t think there’s any need to panic. The inflation rate has already fallen from 7.5% to 3.3%, and it’s still declining. At this level, around 50 million extra tokens a year is something the market can absorb. Things are moving from bad to better; just don’t assess it based on the impression that everything is already in circulation.
The price action over the past month has been clear: it hit 1.3 once and pulled back; it tested 1.0 twice and held both times, grinding back and forth in between. This week it fell nearly 10% along with the broader market. It’s now at 1.15, right in the middle of the range.
My approach is to buy near 1.0 and trim near 1.3, and stay out of it in between. If it loses 1.0, I’ll change my tune—that would mean the August low needs to be tested again. #dot
$DOT
First, a common trap a lot of people fall into. Open a market app and look at DOT: its fully diluted valuation is exactly the same as its market cap. It looks like everything is already in circulation, with no tokens waiting to unlock and no selling pressure. That’s not really the case.
It does indeed have no lockup-and-unlock schedule, but it’s still minting new tokens every year. A year ago, the total supply was 1.61 billion; now it’s 1.71 billion. Nearly 100 million tokens have been added in a year. The total supply shown in the app is the number of tokens already minted, not the maximum it can ever reach—that’s why the two figures look the same.
The actual cap is 2.1 billion tokens, set by a referendum that over 80% of voters supported. It used to have unlimited inflation with no ceiling; now there’s a hard cap. At the current rate, another 390 million tokens will be issued gradually, equivalent to 23% of the current circulating supply.
So, should you run? I don’t think there’s any need to panic. The inflation rate has already fallen from 7.5% to 3.3%, and it’s still declining. At this level, around 50 million extra tokens a year is something the market can absorb. Things are moving from bad to better; just don’t assess it based on the impression that everything is already in circulation.
The price action over the past month has been clear: it hit 1.3 once and pulled back; it tested 1.0 twice and held both times, grinding back and forth in between. This week it fell nearly 10% along with the broader market. It’s now at 1.15, right in the middle of the range.
My approach is to buy near 1.0 and trim near 1.3, and stay out of it in between. If it loses 1.0, I’ll change my tune—that would mean the August low needs to be tested again. #dot
$DOT