#布伦特原油自5月来首次触及110美元 Oil prices have gone through the roof again—what on earth is going on with the U.S. and Iran?
Bottom line: geopolitics accounts for 70% of this oil-price surge, and technical factors the other 30%. WTI closed Friday at $101.41, up 3.5% on the day. It has risen for seven straight days, gaining 10.4% this week. Brent closed at $109.86, touched $110 intraday, and hit a five-month high.
What’s happening with the U.S. and Iran? Put simply, the Strait of Hormuz keeps flaring up. On the 16th, Iran reported another tanker fire in the eastern part of the strait—the second day in a row. More importantly, the U.S. and Israel are holding secret discussions about plans to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump himself said they “may strike the underground nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain again,” and the aircraft carrier USS Bush has returned to the Arabian Sea. Eurasia Group raised the odds of an escalation in the Persian Gulf from 35% to 65%. Trump previously said he wouldn’t act before the midterm elections, but the market is now trading on the possibility that “what if he does?”
What do the technicals show? After seven consecutive daily gains, WTI is now approaching a previous resistance zone. The earlier pivot reference was around $95, but prices have already moved well beyond that, and short-term indicators are clearly overheated. At this point, chasing the rally offers poor risk-reward.
As for direction, my personal view is that we’re more likely to see a near-term pullback than a continued rally. Geopolitical premiums can rise quickly and disappear just as fast. If there are no fresh reports of fires near the strait, or if the U.S. and Iran suddenly say that “talks are making progress,” prices could give back their gains very quickly. If you’re holding long positions opened at lower levels, consider taking some profits.$CL $BTC $ETH
Bottom line: geopolitics accounts for 70% of this oil-price surge, and technical factors the other 30%. WTI closed Friday at $101.41, up 3.5% on the day. It has risen for seven straight days, gaining 10.4% this week. Brent closed at $109.86, touched $110 intraday, and hit a five-month high.
What’s happening with the U.S. and Iran? Put simply, the Strait of Hormuz keeps flaring up. On the 16th, Iran reported another tanker fire in the eastern part of the strait—the second day in a row. More importantly, the U.S. and Israel are holding secret discussions about plans to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump himself said they “may strike the underground nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain again,” and the aircraft carrier USS Bush has returned to the Arabian Sea. Eurasia Group raised the odds of an escalation in the Persian Gulf from 35% to 65%. Trump previously said he wouldn’t act before the midterm elections, but the market is now trading on the possibility that “what if he does?”
What do the technicals show? After seven consecutive daily gains, WTI is now approaching a previous resistance zone. The earlier pivot reference was around $95, but prices have already moved well beyond that, and short-term indicators are clearly overheated. At this point, chasing the rally offers poor risk-reward.
As for direction, my personal view is that we’re more likely to see a near-term pullback than a continued rally. Geopolitical premiums can rise quickly and disappear just as fast. If there are no fresh reports of fires near the strait, or if the U.S. and Iran suddenly say that “talks are making progress,” prices could give back their gains very quickly. If you’re holding long positions opened at lower levels, consider taking some profits.$CL $BTC $ETH