$PROM 24 hours fell 16.6%. More than 70% of accounts on Binance Futures are short, which would normally be fuel for a short squeeze. But that ratio has barely changed in a month. What really changed was the position of the whales.
First, retail traders. Since September 18, the share of long accounts has stayed between 25% and 33% every day. Retail traders in PROM were already accustomed to being short; this isn’t a crowded position that built up over just the past couple of days.
What changed was the whales. The long share of top accounts by position size was still 74.8% on September 29, but had fallen to 52.9% by October 16. Over the same period, futures open interest, measured in tokens, shrank from 3.25 million in late September to 1.26 million on October 15—a 60% cut. Whale longs were what had been supporting this token all along. They’ve been closing positions and selling as the price slid from 6.5 in early October to 4.6. Shorts haven’t had to cover at all. Funding rates have hovered around zero over the past couple of days, with the lowest interval at just -0.04%. Shorts are paying virtually nothing to hold their positions, and nobody is being forced to buy back.
Last night made this especially clear. The 5.00 round-number level was held for more than two hours, with about $3 million worth of spot trading between 5.00 and 5.04. Then the 15-minute candle at 23:15 plunged straight to 4.407, a 12% drop. Today, whales added a little back, bringing the long share to 57.6% and increasing open interest from 1.27 million to 1.47 million tokens. Yet the price still slid from 4.93 to 4.63. It’s getting harder and harder to absorb the selling.
Technically, the daily close is below the EMA50 at 5.07. Both K and D on the KDJ are falling around 25, while J is at 19. The 4.76–4.80 area, which marked the lows on three previous occasions, has now become resistance overhead.
My view is that this drop is due to whales retreating, not shorts squeezing the market. The 4.407 low will most likely be tested again; if it breaks, the next level to watch is 4.30, the wick from September 22. For me to change my view, I’d first need to see the whale long share climb back above 60% and the daily close reclaim 4.80. I don’t hold PROM, and I’m not going to pile into a short when 70% of traders are already short.
#PROM #合约持仓 #Whale Long/Short Ratio
First, retail traders. Since September 18, the share of long accounts has stayed between 25% and 33% every day. Retail traders in PROM were already accustomed to being short; this isn’t a crowded position that built up over just the past couple of days.
What changed was the whales. The long share of top accounts by position size was still 74.8% on September 29, but had fallen to 52.9% by October 16. Over the same period, futures open interest, measured in tokens, shrank from 3.25 million in late September to 1.26 million on October 15—a 60% cut. Whale longs were what had been supporting this token all along. They’ve been closing positions and selling as the price slid from 6.5 in early October to 4.6. Shorts haven’t had to cover at all. Funding rates have hovered around zero over the past couple of days, with the lowest interval at just -0.04%. Shorts are paying virtually nothing to hold their positions, and nobody is being forced to buy back.
Last night made this especially clear. The 5.00 round-number level was held for more than two hours, with about $3 million worth of spot trading between 5.00 and 5.04. Then the 15-minute candle at 23:15 plunged straight to 4.407, a 12% drop. Today, whales added a little back, bringing the long share to 57.6% and increasing open interest from 1.27 million to 1.47 million tokens. Yet the price still slid from 4.93 to 4.63. It’s getting harder and harder to absorb the selling.
Technically, the daily close is below the EMA50 at 5.07. Both K and D on the KDJ are falling around 25, while J is at 19. The 4.76–4.80 area, which marked the lows on three previous occasions, has now become resistance overhead.
My view is that this drop is due to whales retreating, not shorts squeezing the market. The 4.407 low will most likely be tested again; if it breaks, the next level to watch is 4.30, the wick from September 22. For me to change my view, I’d first need to see the whale long share climb back above 60% and the daily close reclaim 4.80. I don’t hold PROM, and I’m not going to pile into a short when 70% of traders are already short.
#PROM #合约持仓 #Whale Long/Short Ratio