The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its data on October 15:
September PPI was up 6.3% year over year, versus expectations of 5.3%—a full percentage point higher than forecast.
That’s the highest reading since December 2022. The monthly figure was even more dramatic: up 1.3%, compared with expectations of just 0.5%.
Energy was the main driver: energy PPI rose 10.8% month over month, and gasoline prices jumped 20.3% in a single month, accounting for nearly half of the increase in goods prices.
But the energy shock itself isn’t that frightening—oil prices will eventually come back down, and the market can absorb the hit.
What’s really concerning is this:
Services PPI rose 0.8% month over month, transportation and warehousing rose 3.4%, and core PPI climbed to 5.0% year over year.
That suggests inflation has spread from energy into services. Energy is an external shock; services inflation is more persistent. With both running hot, it’s hard for the Fed to say, “Let’s wait and see.”
The timeline looks even worse when you put it all together:
October 14: September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, above expectations;
October 15: September PPI was up 6.3% year over year, above expectations;
October 27–28: The FOMC meets.
Polymarket data shows the odds of an October FOMC rate hike at around 28%, with a 72% chance of no change. 28% is not a small number—one month ago, it was close to zero.
BTC briefly fell below $81,000 that day, hitting an intraday low of $80,154 and closing down about 3.4%.
Rate-cut expectations have shifted from “How many cuts can we still get this year?” to “We’ll be grateful if they don’t hike again.” Against this backdrop, do you think BTC can hold around $80,000?
$BTC
#美国ppi同比升至6.3%
September PPI was up 6.3% year over year, versus expectations of 5.3%—a full percentage point higher than forecast.
That’s the highest reading since December 2022. The monthly figure was even more dramatic: up 1.3%, compared with expectations of just 0.5%.
Energy was the main driver: energy PPI rose 10.8% month over month, and gasoline prices jumped 20.3% in a single month, accounting for nearly half of the increase in goods prices.
But the energy shock itself isn’t that frightening—oil prices will eventually come back down, and the market can absorb the hit.
What’s really concerning is this:
Services PPI rose 0.8% month over month, transportation and warehousing rose 3.4%, and core PPI climbed to 5.0% year over year.
That suggests inflation has spread from energy into services. Energy is an external shock; services inflation is more persistent. With both running hot, it’s hard for the Fed to say, “Let’s wait and see.”
The timeline looks even worse when you put it all together:
October 14: September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, above expectations;
October 15: September PPI was up 6.3% year over year, above expectations;
October 27–28: The FOMC meets.
Polymarket data shows the odds of an October FOMC rate hike at around 28%, with a 72% chance of no change. 28% is not a small number—one month ago, it was close to zero.
BTC briefly fell below $81,000 that day, hitting an intraday low of $80,154 and closing down about 3.4%.
Rate-cut expectations have shifted from “How many cuts can we still get this year?” to “We’ll be grateful if they don’t hike again.” Against this backdrop, do you think BTC can hold around $80,000?
$BTC
#美国ppi同比升至6.3%