$GTC rose from 0.194 to 0.2525 today, gaining as much as 30%, yet the contract funding rate kept falling. Based on Binance’s current estimate, the settlement at 16:00 will be -0.74%, meaning shorts will have to pay longs 0.74% every 4 hours. With the price up this much, people are still willing to pay such a steep cost to stay short—the fuel for this rally is most likely coming from the shorts.
First, the positioning. From 13:00 to 14:40, contract open interest, measured in coins, grew from 21.92 million to 25.27 million—a 15% increase in just over an hour. At the same time, the contract price stayed below spot: the mark price was 0.2366, versus a spot index of 0.2421, a 2.3% discount. Buyers were lifting spot, while someone on the contract side kept taking sell orders at a discount. Shorts made up the bulk of the new positions, which is what pushed the funding rate down.
The mechanics are simple: if the price doesn’t fall back, these shorts have to pay every 4 hours. Those who can’t take it will have to buy back to close, and those buybacks will push the price up further.
Technically, the 4-hour chart is now above the upper Bollinger Band at 0.2262. The last time it closed outside the upper band was during the listing surge in the early hours of October 13. The 4-hour MACD histogram has just flipped from -0.0001 to +0.0023. The 4-hour ATR(14) is 0.0206; adding one ATR to the upper band gives roughly today’s high of 0.2525.
While I’m at it, let’s check the GTC call from October 14. I said that open interest falling below 25 million coins and a 1-hour close back above 0.215 would mean the listing hype was nearing its end. On the 16th, open interest had already fallen to around 22 million coins, and today’s 11:00 1-hour candle closed at 0.21506, just meeting the conditions. After that, the price rose by more than 10%. The other half of my call was off: I thought a break below 0.1988 would let the shorts push it lower, but it only fell to 0.1877 before stopping.
My view is that if 0.2262 holds, shorts will be forced to cover first, and 0.2525 will likely be tested again. If the 4-hour candle closes back below 0.215, that would mean this was just a spot-led rally and the contract shorts won this round. I don’t hold GTC, so I’m neither chasing it nor shorting it. After the 16:00 settlement, I’ll first see whether the funding rate can get back within -0.1%.
#GTC #资金费率 #ShortSqueeze
First, the positioning. From 13:00 to 14:40, contract open interest, measured in coins, grew from 21.92 million to 25.27 million—a 15% increase in just over an hour. At the same time, the contract price stayed below spot: the mark price was 0.2366, versus a spot index of 0.2421, a 2.3% discount. Buyers were lifting spot, while someone on the contract side kept taking sell orders at a discount. Shorts made up the bulk of the new positions, which is what pushed the funding rate down.
The mechanics are simple: if the price doesn’t fall back, these shorts have to pay every 4 hours. Those who can’t take it will have to buy back to close, and those buybacks will push the price up further.
Technically, the 4-hour chart is now above the upper Bollinger Band at 0.2262. The last time it closed outside the upper band was during the listing surge in the early hours of October 13. The 4-hour MACD histogram has just flipped from -0.0001 to +0.0023. The 4-hour ATR(14) is 0.0206; adding one ATR to the upper band gives roughly today’s high of 0.2525.
While I’m at it, let’s check the GTC call from October 14. I said that open interest falling below 25 million coins and a 1-hour close back above 0.215 would mean the listing hype was nearing its end. On the 16th, open interest had already fallen to around 22 million coins, and today’s 11:00 1-hour candle closed at 0.21506, just meeting the conditions. After that, the price rose by more than 10%. The other half of my call was off: I thought a break below 0.1988 would let the shorts push it lower, but it only fell to 0.1877 before stopping.
My view is that if 0.2262 holds, shorts will be forced to cover first, and 0.2525 will likely be tested again. If the 4-hour candle closes back below 0.215, that would mean this was just a spot-led rally and the contract shorts won this round. I don’t hold GTC, so I’m neither chasing it nor shorting it. After the 16:00 settlement, I’ll first see whether the funding rate can get back within -0.1%.
#GTC #资金费率 #ShortSqueeze