$EIGEN In less than three hours, it rose as much as 10.9%. At the same time, the largest traders by position size on Binance Futures cut their long/short position ratio from 3.82 to 3.42. The account-based long/short ratio moved the other way, rising from 2.04 to 2.16, with long accounts making up 68.4%. The vast majority of accounts are retail traders.
This played out once already three days ago. On October 12, the price also surged to this level, peaking at 0.2852. During those five hours, the large traders’ ratio fell from 3.68 to 3.11, while the account-based long/short ratio climbed from 1.64 to 2.01. The day closed at 0.2461, down 13.7% from the high.
The mechanics aren’t complicated: large traders sell their longs to people chasing the rally. The more buyers there are to take the other side, the fewer remain who can keep buying afterward. The sequence this time is clear too: at 10:00, futures open interest measured in coins first dropped by 940,000 tokens, sparking a wave of short covering. Only afterward did it rise from 35.32 million to 37.59 million, up 6.4%, with most of the increase coming from account-side longs. The funding rate stayed at the positive base rate of 0.005% throughout; it never turned negative. Shorts weren’t crowded to begin with, and the squeezeable shorts had already been squeezed at 10:00. From 10:00 to 13:00, futures trading volume was $10.93 million, versus just $1.92 million in spot—a 5.7-fold difference. Spot didn’t follow through.
On the indicators, the 1-hour RSI is 82.2, and the price has already moved above the daily Bollinger upper band at 0.2756. The daily EMA200 is at 0.2677. Over the past month, EIGEN has closed above this line twice, on September 27 and October 11; the following days, it fell 8.3% and 8.7%, respectively, and failed to hold above it.
Structurally, 0.2852–0.2857 overhead marks the highs left by the two rallies on September 26 and October 12, and is also the 30-day high. Below, the first level to watch is the EMA200 at 0.2677, followed by the low of the 11:00 candle today at 0.2626.
For this leg, I’m leaning toward a pullback, not a breakout. Large traders are reducing their positions while accounts are adding, and resistance is right overhead, so a retest of 0.2677 at the EMA200 seems more likely. To change my view, I’d need to see both a 4-hour close above 0.2857 and the large traders’ long/short ratio rise back above 3.8. I don’t hold EIGEN, and I’m neither chasing longs nor in a hurry to open a short here.
Personal opinion
#EIGEN #LargeTraderPositions
This played out once already three days ago. On October 12, the price also surged to this level, peaking at 0.2852. During those five hours, the large traders’ ratio fell from 3.68 to 3.11, while the account-based long/short ratio climbed from 1.64 to 2.01. The day closed at 0.2461, down 13.7% from the high.
The mechanics aren’t complicated: large traders sell their longs to people chasing the rally. The more buyers there are to take the other side, the fewer remain who can keep buying afterward. The sequence this time is clear too: at 10:00, futures open interest measured in coins first dropped by 940,000 tokens, sparking a wave of short covering. Only afterward did it rise from 35.32 million to 37.59 million, up 6.4%, with most of the increase coming from account-side longs. The funding rate stayed at the positive base rate of 0.005% throughout; it never turned negative. Shorts weren’t crowded to begin with, and the squeezeable shorts had already been squeezed at 10:00. From 10:00 to 13:00, futures trading volume was $10.93 million, versus just $1.92 million in spot—a 5.7-fold difference. Spot didn’t follow through.
On the indicators, the 1-hour RSI is 82.2, and the price has already moved above the daily Bollinger upper band at 0.2756. The daily EMA200 is at 0.2677. Over the past month, EIGEN has closed above this line twice, on September 27 and October 11; the following days, it fell 8.3% and 8.7%, respectively, and failed to hold above it.
Structurally, 0.2852–0.2857 overhead marks the highs left by the two rallies on September 26 and October 12, and is also the 30-day high. Below, the first level to watch is the EMA200 at 0.2677, followed by the low of the 11:00 candle today at 0.2626.
For this leg, I’m leaning toward a pullback, not a breakout. Large traders are reducing their positions while accounts are adding, and resistance is right overhead, so a retest of 0.2677 at the EMA200 seems more likely. To change my view, I’d need to see both a 4-hour close above 0.2857 and the large traders’ long/short ratio rise back above 3.8. I don’t hold EIGEN, and I’m neither chasing longs nor in a hurry to open a short here.
Personal opinion
#EIGEN #LargeTraderPositions