For Bitcoin to fall to $10,000, buyers from 2019 would first have to panic-sell en masse—and on-chain data can’t calculate that scenario
📈 进群一起分析行情
On October 16, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju fired back on X at Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone’s bearish $10,000 prediction. He didn’t mince words: spot ETFs have brought in a cumulative $58 billion, and publicly listed Bitcoin treasury companies hold around 1.3 million BTC. Even if all those holdings were sold, the on-chain cost basis would still keep the floor near $30,000.
Let’s get the numbers straight. Bitcoin is trading at $81,540, down 0.70% over the past 24 hours, with a market cap of around $1.64 trillion. $30,000 would mean a further drop of about 63%; $10,000 would mean a further drop of about 88%. 📉
Here’s how Ju’s calculation works: at $10,000, Bitcoin’s MVRV would be around 0.2. Historically, even at its worst market bottoms, this indicator only fell to 0.6. To reach 0.2, investors who entered around 2019 would have to sell at any price. But they’ve already weathered two 75% declines. The odds of them handing over their coins at the very bottom are extremely low.
His confidence comes from two things. First, Bitcoin’s on-chain realized price is around $30,000—the average cost basis of all coins in the market. Second, the scale of the Bitcoin treasury companies: a tracking site shows that 200 publicly listed companies hold a combined total of around 1.285 million BTC, close to the 1.3 million figure he cited.
⚠️ But take one of those figures with a grain of salt: the $58 billion in cumulative ETF inflows comes from Ju’s post. The article explicitly says there’s no independent primary source to verify it, so it should be treated as his claim, not as a third-party statistic.
My take: Bitcoin’s holder base really has changed this cycle. ETFs and publicly listed companies have locked up a lot of coins in long-term accounts, giving this market a stronger base against selling pressure than in previous cycles. But cost basis is an analytical framework, not a hard floor enforced by the market. It tells you that a drop to that level would be irrational; it doesn’t tell you it can’t happen.
What’s really worth watching is the panic indicator. The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 63, still in greed territory—worlds apart from the widespread panic that a $10,000 price would require. If that number drops below 20, the calculations above will need to be revisited. 🦖
Where do you think Bitcoin’s floor is this cycle: the $30,000 cost basis, or an even lower macro-driven price? Let’s discuss in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I’ll keep you up to date on Bitcoin’s biggest stories—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀
📈 进群一起分析行情
On October 16, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju fired back on X at Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone’s bearish $10,000 prediction. He didn’t mince words: spot ETFs have brought in a cumulative $58 billion, and publicly listed Bitcoin treasury companies hold around 1.3 million BTC. Even if all those holdings were sold, the on-chain cost basis would still keep the floor near $30,000.
Let’s get the numbers straight. Bitcoin is trading at $81,540, down 0.70% over the past 24 hours, with a market cap of around $1.64 trillion. $30,000 would mean a further drop of about 63%; $10,000 would mean a further drop of about 88%. 📉
Here’s how Ju’s calculation works: at $10,000, Bitcoin’s MVRV would be around 0.2. Historically, even at its worst market bottoms, this indicator only fell to 0.6. To reach 0.2, investors who entered around 2019 would have to sell at any price. But they’ve already weathered two 75% declines. The odds of them handing over their coins at the very bottom are extremely low.
His confidence comes from two things. First, Bitcoin’s on-chain realized price is around $30,000—the average cost basis of all coins in the market. Second, the scale of the Bitcoin treasury companies: a tracking site shows that 200 publicly listed companies hold a combined total of around 1.285 million BTC, close to the 1.3 million figure he cited.
⚠️ But take one of those figures with a grain of salt: the $58 billion in cumulative ETF inflows comes from Ju’s post. The article explicitly says there’s no independent primary source to verify it, so it should be treated as his claim, not as a third-party statistic.
My take: Bitcoin’s holder base really has changed this cycle. ETFs and publicly listed companies have locked up a lot of coins in long-term accounts, giving this market a stronger base against selling pressure than in previous cycles. But cost basis is an analytical framework, not a hard floor enforced by the market. It tells you that a drop to that level would be irrational; it doesn’t tell you it can’t happen.
What’s really worth watching is the panic indicator. The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 63, still in greed territory—worlds apart from the widespread panic that a $10,000 price would require. If that number drops below 20, the calculations above will need to be revisited. 🦖
Where do you think Bitcoin’s floor is this cycle: the $30,000 cost basis, or an even lower macro-driven price? Let’s discuss in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I’ll keep you up to date on Bitcoin’s biggest stories—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀