Oil settles above 101, Nasdaq falls 4.5% for the week, but BTC doesn’t plunge with it
U.S. stocks had just closed at 4 a.m. Here are the numbers: the Nasdaq closed down 2.14%, falling about 4.5% for the week—its worst week since late June. WTI crude settled at $101.41, up 3.5%, its highest close in a month and up for seven straight days. Brent settled at $109.86, up 3.7%. Crypto stocks fared even worse: Strategy closed down about 9.6%, and Coinbase closed down about 5.8%. So, which side are you on: has BTC truly decoupled, or has its turn to fall just not come yet? I’ll give you my take first, then the level that would invalidate it.
$BTC hit an intraday low of 80,809, briefly dipping below 81,000. $ETH bottomed at 2,393, briefly breaking below 2,400. But both recovered by the close. I just cross-checked the figures against two sources (04:42): BTC at 81,711, down 0.79% over 24 hours; ETH at 2,415, down 1.81%. Their losses were less than half the Nasdaq’s. Just last night, I said we’d need a 4-hour close to confirm a move above 82,634. Then U.S. stocks took a dive: BTC didn’t confirm a hold above that level, but the sell-off also didn’t drag down crypto spot markets. That’s the key takeaway tonight.
Why did oil rise? Settlement reports cited another Ukrainian strike on a Russian refinery, alongside Middle East supply concerns and the risk of disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. There were also intraday reports of an attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, but there’s no official confirmation yet, so don’t treat it as fact. The problem is that both CPI and PPI came in hot this week, and with oil back above 100, inflation expectations could get pushed up again. Meanwhile, the Fed enters its blackout period today and doesn’t meet until the 27th–28th. No one will be out this weekend to calm the markets, leaving BTC to weather two days of headline risk on its own.
My invalidation level is still the same: a 4-hour close below 80,000 invalidates the decoupling thesis—we’d treat it as a delayed catch-up drop. A move back above 82,634 is needed before we can talk about a recovery.
Risk warning: Weekend liquidity is thin, and oil headlines can change at any moment. Keep positions small and don’t chase the news.
Over the next two days, will BTC hold 80K or fall to catch up? Pick one and share your thoughts 👇
#油价 #美股 #Bitcoin
U.S. stocks had just closed at 4 a.m. Here are the numbers: the Nasdaq closed down 2.14%, falling about 4.5% for the week—its worst week since late June. WTI crude settled at $101.41, up 3.5%, its highest close in a month and up for seven straight days. Brent settled at $109.86, up 3.7%. Crypto stocks fared even worse: Strategy closed down about 9.6%, and Coinbase closed down about 5.8%. So, which side are you on: has BTC truly decoupled, or has its turn to fall just not come yet? I’ll give you my take first, then the level that would invalidate it.
$BTC hit an intraday low of 80,809, briefly dipping below 81,000. $ETH bottomed at 2,393, briefly breaking below 2,400. But both recovered by the close. I just cross-checked the figures against two sources (04:42): BTC at 81,711, down 0.79% over 24 hours; ETH at 2,415, down 1.81%. Their losses were less than half the Nasdaq’s. Just last night, I said we’d need a 4-hour close to confirm a move above 82,634. Then U.S. stocks took a dive: BTC didn’t confirm a hold above that level, but the sell-off also didn’t drag down crypto spot markets. That’s the key takeaway tonight.
Why did oil rise? Settlement reports cited another Ukrainian strike on a Russian refinery, alongside Middle East supply concerns and the risk of disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. There were also intraday reports of an attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, but there’s no official confirmation yet, so don’t treat it as fact. The problem is that both CPI and PPI came in hot this week, and with oil back above 100, inflation expectations could get pushed up again. Meanwhile, the Fed enters its blackout period today and doesn’t meet until the 27th–28th. No one will be out this weekend to calm the markets, leaving BTC to weather two days of headline risk on its own.
My invalidation level is still the same: a 4-hour close below 80,000 invalidates the decoupling thesis—we’d treat it as a delayed catch-up drop. A move back above 82,634 is needed before we can talk about a recovery.
Risk warning: Weekend liquidity is thin, and oil headlines can change at any moment. Keep positions small and don’t chase the news.
Over the next two days, will BTC hold 80K or fall to catch up? Pick one and share your thoughts 👇
#油价 #美股 #Bitcoin