#On-chain Metrics Analysis
BTC: LTH Loss Market Cap / Active Market Cap (excluding >10Y)
The public proxy methodology divides the current market value of long-term holder coins at a loss by the active market value of long-term coins held for 155 days to 10 years. A rising ratio indicates that more committed holders are sitting on unrealized losses and on-chain pressure is building.
Elevated · Current ratio: 8.2%
About 18.8 percentage points below the historical capitulation threshold of roughly 27%.
The 7-day average is about 8.0%, and the 30-day average is about 7.8%; the short-term trend is declining, with pressure easing.
Historical peak: about 32.4%; BTC reference price: about $81,996.
Historically, readings near the extreme of 27% have coincided with bear-market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, but this is an observation—not a fixed rule. The current reading remains well below the capitulation zone. It is more useful to watch how quickly losses are spreading or easing, alongside price structure, liquidity, and spot demand.
$BTC
BTC: LTH Loss Market Cap / Active Market Cap (excluding >10Y)
The public proxy methodology divides the current market value of long-term holder coins at a loss by the active market value of long-term coins held for 155 days to 10 years. A rising ratio indicates that more committed holders are sitting on unrealized losses and on-chain pressure is building.
Elevated · Current ratio: 8.2%
About 18.8 percentage points below the historical capitulation threshold of roughly 27%.
The 7-day average is about 8.0%, and the 30-day average is about 7.8%; the short-term trend is declining, with pressure easing.
Historical peak: about 32.4%; BTC reference price: about $81,996.
Historically, readings near the extreme of 27% have coincided with bear-market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, but this is an observation—not a fixed rule. The current reading remains well below the capitulation zone. It is more useful to watch how quickly losses are spreading or easing, alongside price structure, liquidity, and spot demand.
$BTC