#比特币短期持有者持仓升至408万枚
The chips have recently changed hands.
Short-term holders now have 4.08 million coins, up 422,000 from the July low. Put simply, people who were holding before are selling, and new short-term traders are buying. It’s not that there are no buyers—the buyers have just changed.
I think there are two sides to this. The fact that people are willing to buy means new money is still coming in from the sidelines. The coins are changing hands, rather than everyone rushing for the exit, and that gives the market a foundation for moving higher. But there’s a catch: these newcomers have a higher cost basis and are more impatient. If the price wobbles, they may want to sell. Their average cost is a key level: while the price stays above it, there aren’t many people looking to sell; once it falls below, a lot of them could cut their losses at the same time.
There are three things I’ll be watching next.
First, whether short-term holdings keep rising. If they do, it means the old coins are still being handed off. If they stop rising or even start falling, the coins are returning to holders who are willing to sit tight, and the market may become a little more stable.
Second, how close the current price is to that cost-basis level. The closer it gets, the fiercer the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Third, trading volume. A slow drift downward is a completely different thing from a high-volume sell-off.
This data won’t tell you whether the price will rise or fall; it only suggests that things are likely to get choppy. With the coins now in short-term holders’ hands, volatility naturally increases. For the price to keep moving higher, the market first needs to absorb the coins held by people who aren’t prepared to sit tight.
The chips have recently changed hands.
Short-term holders now have 4.08 million coins, up 422,000 from the July low. Put simply, people who were holding before are selling, and new short-term traders are buying. It’s not that there are no buyers—the buyers have just changed.
I think there are two sides to this. The fact that people are willing to buy means new money is still coming in from the sidelines. The coins are changing hands, rather than everyone rushing for the exit, and that gives the market a foundation for moving higher. But there’s a catch: these newcomers have a higher cost basis and are more impatient. If the price wobbles, they may want to sell. Their average cost is a key level: while the price stays above it, there aren’t many people looking to sell; once it falls below, a lot of them could cut their losses at the same time.
There are three things I’ll be watching next.
First, whether short-term holdings keep rising. If they do, it means the old coins are still being handed off. If they stop rising or even start falling, the coins are returning to holders who are willing to sit tight, and the market may become a little more stable.
Second, how close the current price is to that cost-basis level. The closer it gets, the fiercer the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Third, trading volume. A slow drift downward is a completely different thing from a high-volume sell-off.
This data won’t tell you whether the price will rise or fall; it only suggests that things are likely to get choppy. With the coins now in short-term holders’ hands, volatility naturally increases. For the price to keep moving higher, the market first needs to absorb the coins held by people who aren’t prepared to sit tight.